{"id":744,"date":"2022-04-11T15:18:25","date_gmt":"2022-04-11T22:18:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ezmortgages.us\/?p=744"},"modified":"2022-04-14T15:20:24","modified_gmt":"2022-04-14T22:20:24","slug":"ez-mortgage-monitor-april-11-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-april-11-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"EZ Mortgage Monitor – April 11, 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

Who wants a 30yr fixed mortgage in the high 4%s or low 5%s?!\u00a0 Anyone looking to buy a home, is the right answer.\u00a0 That\u2019s where the market is, currently.<\/p>\n

Of course, for refinances, there are always going to be life circumstances that make whatever the prevailing rate is look attractive (vs. just lowering your rate, payment and\/or shorting the term, as has been so common for the last decade).\u00a0 It\u2019s just this recent spike is pretty unprecedented, approaching a 2% increase in just three or four months, surpassed only by the surge in rates from spring into summer, 1980.<\/p>\n

But really, 5% 30yr fixed money is still good, from a historic perspective.\u00a0 It\u2019s basically just back to where we were in late 2018, and early 2011 through late 2010 before that.\u00a0 And from 2009-2010 and earlier?\u00a0 A 5% 30yr fixed rate had been basically inconceivable.\u00a0 It had never happened before, other than in a brief window during 2009.\u00a0 We\u2019ve just been spoiled, since then.<\/p>\n

So what\u2019s happening now?<\/p>\n

It\u2019s all about inflation.\u00a0 First we had the supply chain disruptions, and that\u2019s been compounded by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.\u00a0 If you\u2019re lending money out at 3% or whatever, and inflation is at 7%, you\u2019re taking a beating, over time.\u00a0 We\u2019ve all seen the price of gas, and headlines about seeing the highest inflation in 40 years.\u00a0 Interest rates have risen accordingly.<\/p>\n

But are we really looking at an inflationary period like we saw from the mid- to late 1970s through the early 1980s that pushes mortgage rates into the double digits, or even high single digits?\u00a0 I\u2019m not convinced.<\/p>\n

I think this may be another spike in rates that proves to be way over blown and temporary, with bonds and mortgage backed securities proving to be in way oversold positions.\u00a0 I won\u2019t be surprised if in 12-18 months, the markets are more worried about deflationary pressures than the inflationary ones that are fueling this run up. \u00a0I may be the only person on the planet who thinks that, and I could definitely be wrong, but that\u2019s my opinion now.\u00a0 And although we\u2019ve been saying for at least 20 years \u201crates have to go up, sooner or later\u201d every upward move has always proven temporary.\u00a0 I\u2019m not sure this time will be different.\u00a0 There\u2019s a saying that history doesn\u2019t repeat, but it does rhyme.<\/p>\n

This is what forms my opinion.\u00a0 Right now, we\u2019re seeing the biggest increases in food and energy costs, but also in other areas \u2013 like things needing microchips, which is a lot of stuff these days (phones, cars, computers, appliances, etc.) that we\u2019ve seen in a lifetime.\u00a0 Food and energy, people have to consume.\u00a0 That squeezes out funds from their budget that they may otherwise spend elsewhere.\u00a0 For the consumer discretionary stuff being squeezed by higher prices?\u00a0 Well, people can just put off those types of purchases, in many cases.<\/p>\n

So if your budget\u2019s being squeezed by costs of basic necessities, and you pull back on consumption (both for those necessities, and optional expenses) what happens?\u00a0 Demand destruction.\u00a0 If there\u2019s less demand, pricing pressures ease, and may reverse if demand slackens for long enough.<\/p>\n

Then you have the war on Ukraine.\u00a0 There are many layers to that conflict, and I don\u2019t see it ending any time soon.\u00a0 Hopefully I\u2019m wrong, but I don\u2019t see how Putin \u201ctakes on off ramp\u201d without somehow manufacturing a victory.\u00a0 Is that by annexing the Donbas region and calling it a \u201cwin\u201d?\u00a0 Maybe, but I doubt it.\u00a0 And whether Zolenskiy and the Ukrainians would allow that, is another question.\u00a0 And, however that war ends, I don\u2019t see an end to the sanctions against Putin, his oligarchs, and thus the Russian people, being unwound quickly, either.<\/p>\n

Although together the Ukrainian and Russian economies are a small percentage of global GDP (because most of GDP is consumption based), they are significant producers of goods that other countries consume (wheat, and energy, oil, natural gas, coal, etc.). The OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) projects the war could reduce global GDP by 1% while pushing consumer inflation higher by 2% (https:\/\/www.oecd-ilibrary.org\/sites\/4181d61b-en\/index.html?itemId=\/content\/publication\/4181d61b-en<\/a>).<\/p>\n

IHS Markit comes to a similar conclusion, that global GDP may contract by .8%, and inflationary pressures could push higher by 2.5% (https:\/\/ihsmarkit.com\/research-analysis\/russias-war-ukraine-reshapes-geopolitical-economic-outlook.html<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Another factor is that the US and global economies have been expanding at a nice clip for a while, so at some point, that expansive cycle was going to run its course, with or without the shocks of higher inflation and interest rates.<\/p>\n

So, back to the point that history doesn\u2019t repeat, but it does rhyme.\u00a0 Looking at this chart of mortgage rates since January 1, 2000, we can see several spikes of roughly 1% within similarly short periods of time.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Each time we\u2019ve seen an interest rate spike in the last twenty-two years, it\u2019s been followed by either a gradual or sharp move down again.\u00a0 Could this time be different?\u00a0 Sure.\u00a0 But I\u2019ll believe it when I see it.<\/p>\n

And, if you\u2019re saying \u201cwell, we\u2019re in for some crazy, long-lasting inflation, like we saw in the 70\u2019s and 80s\u201d so what about that?\u00a0 Here\u2019s the chart for 30yr fixed mortgage rates covering that span from 1971 through December 1999:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The patterns don\u2019t necessarily repeat, but they do seem to rhyme.\u00a0 Each move higher was followed by either a sharp drop, or slowly drifting lower, over time.\u00a0 So the question to me is, where is equilibrium?\u00a0 Will we ever know it if we see it?<\/p>\n

The Fed seems to consider a 2% inflation target (based on the personal consumption expenditures index) consistent with price stability and long-term growth.\u00a0 We\u2019re clearly running hotter than that now.\u00a0 But for how long?\u00a0 What happens when the impact of the pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war subside?<\/p>\n

Looking at the PCE index, the inflationary pressures we\u2019re seeing now seem to be an extreme outlier, including the period most people consider to be of the US\u2019 hyper-inflation of the late 70s and early 80\u2019s.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Many economists are starting to focus further back than the inflationary spike of the 70s and 80s, looking more towards the aftermath of WWII.<\/p>\n

In some respects, that\u2019s more similar to what we\u2019re experiencing now.\u00a0 During the war, supply chains were shifted to produce materiel for the war. \u00a0Workers \u2013 historically men \u2013 were off fighting the war. Citizens were encouraged to ration, so pent up demand was high (sound familiar?).\u00a0 Some believe that the normalization of those factors, combined with market forces, subdued inflation without massive monetary intervention.<\/p>\n

Will this time be different?\u00a0 We\u2019ll find out.<\/p>\n

And, speaking of WWII, we also have to consider demographics.\u00a0 The ongoing retirement of Baby Boomers, the largest generation to move through the US, and many countries\u2019, labor force in history, is not an inflation supporting event.\u00a0 And, we\u2019re in the early stages to mid-stages or watching that phenomenon unfold.<\/p>\n

I finished my last update at the new year with \u201crates are still extremely low, so get \u2018em while you can!\u201d\u00a0 They were still in the 3% range at that time.\u00a0 I sure didn\u2019t see this spike coming, however.\u00a0 But I\u2019m betting they won\u2019t remain at current levels for too long.\u00a0 Whether that\u2019s a few months or a year or two, we\u2019ll find out.<\/p>\n

For those reasons, I think this recent spike in inflationary pressures, and the ensuing march higher for interest rates will prove temporary.<\/p>\n

But ultimately, none of that matters.\u00a0 If you\u2019re buying a home, you\u2019re taking the pricing the market\u2019s giving.\u00a0 You can\u2019t control interest rates, so there\u2019s no point worrying about them.\u00a0 You buy a primary residence for housing.\u00a0 You buy an investment property either because it cash flows, you hope to gain from appreciation, or both.\u00a0 A good friend of mine\u2019s Mom bought a lot of rentals during the late 1970s and early 1980s, when interest rates were at their zenith.\u00a0 People thought she was crazy.\u00a0 She retired twice by the time she was 45, spending about ten hours a week managing her rental portfolio.<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re refinancing, unless you\u2019re still sleeping on a 5.5% to 6% rate from the 2000s or so, which millions of people still are, then you\u2019re considering doing so for other reasons, and it either serves that purpose cost-effectively for you, or it doesn\u2019t.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s your snapshot of where rates started this week.\u00a0 Call or email if you, your family or friends have any questions or would like to discuss refinancing, or buying a home.\u00a0 Cheers!<\/p>\n

E<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Conforming<\/strong><\/td>\nRates<\/strong><\/td>\nPoints<\/strong><\/td>\nAPR<\/strong><\/td>\nLoan Amt<\/strong><\/td>\nPayment<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n4.875%<\/td>\n-0.5<\/td>\n4.925%<\/td>\n\u00a0$300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a01,588<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n4.125%<\/td>\n-0.5<\/td>\n4.175%<\/td>\n\u00a0$300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0 \u00a0 2,238<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5\/6 ARM<\/td>\n4.875%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n5.125%<\/td>\n\u00a0$300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a01,588<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7\/6 ARM<\/td>\n5.000%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n5.050%<\/td>\n\u00a0$300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a01,610<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jumbo (ask me about Super Conforming limit, per your zip code)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n4.375%<\/td>\n0.5<\/td>\n4.405%<\/td>\n\u00a0$1,000,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0 \u00a0 4,993<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n4.500%<\/td>\n0.5<\/td>\n4.530%<\/td>\n\u00a0$1,000,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0 \u00a0 7,650<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5\/6 ARM<\/td>\n3.875%<\/td>\n0.5<\/td>\n3.905%<\/td>\n\u00a0$1,000,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0 \u00a0 4,702<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10\/1 ARM<\/td>\n4.250%<\/td>\n0.5<\/td>\n4.280%<\/td>\n\u00a0$1,000,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a04,919<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rates subject to change without notice.<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Please keep in mind, these rates and statistics are for informational purposes only to give you a sense of market movement and my opinion as to why.\u00a0 Although these rates exist today, based on certain qualifying characteristics (760+ fico, owner occupied SFR with 75% loan to value ratio or less and $200,000+ loan amount), your scenario may allow for lower or higher interest rates.\u00a0 Licensed by the CA Dept of Real Estate, #01760965.\u00a0 NMLS: 239756.\u00a0 Equal Opportunity Housing Lender.\u00a0 If you’d like to be removed from this list, please reply with REMOVE in the subject line.\u00a0 You can also use this link, mailto:eric@ezmortgages.us and add REMOVE to the subject line.\u00a0 To add someone who would appreciate this information, send me their email with SUBSCRIBE as subject.<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Eric Grathwol<\/p>\n

Broker<\/p>\n

EZ Mortgages, Inc.<\/p>\n

4535 Missouri Flat Rd. Ste. 2E<\/p>\n

Placerville, CA 95667<\/p>\n

Office: 530-303-3643<\/p>\n

Cell: 916-223-4235<\/p>\n

Fax: 530-237-5800<\/p>\n

NMLS: 239756<\/p>\n

www.ezmortgages.us<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Who wants a 30yr fixed mortgage in the high 4%s or low 5%s?!\u00a0 Anyone looking to buy a home, is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-744","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nEZ Mortgage Monitor - 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