{"id":721,"date":"2020-03-14T13:15:38","date_gmt":"2020-03-14T20:15:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ezmortgages.us\/?p=721"},"modified":"2020-04-24T13:16:00","modified_gmt":"2020-04-24T20:16:00","slug":"ez-mortgage-monitor-march-14-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-march-14-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"EZ Mortgage Monitor – March 14, 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"

A funny thing happened on the way to the lowest interest rates in history.<\/p>\n

The mortgage market revolted.\u00a0 Lenders and investors were caught with their pants down.<\/p>\n

As you know from following my mortgage market updates, despite what the media says, or mortgage companies peddle in their advertisements, mortgage rates are not driven by the Fed.\u00a0 They are not driven by what the 10yr US Treasury yield does.\u00a0 They are not driven by what happens in the stock market.\u00a0 Mortgage rates are driven by what investors are willing to take in return for their perceived risk.\u00a0 It is supply and demand.\u00a0 Full stop.<\/p>\n

So what happened in the last week or so?\u00a0 Supply spiked, and demand waned.\u00a0 Nobody wanted to buy mortgage backed securities with rates heading to lows we\u2019d really never seen before.\u00a0 So, lenders who had pools of loans set for sale at say 3% or 3.5% couldn\u2019t sell them.\u00a0 That means they can\u2019t replenish their coffers to lend more, potentially not cover their operating expenses, or cover their expansion plans, etc.\u00a0 They\u2019re being squeezed.<\/p>\n

So what do they do?\u00a0 They raise their rates, hoping to entice buyers.\u00a0 It is supply and demand.\u00a0 Full stop.<\/p>\n

Now, the other part of the equation is what happened to the buyers?\u00a0 Go back about three weeks.\u00a0 30yr fixed mortgage money was around 3.5%, with low or no costs, depending on the scenario.\u00a0 Everything was fine.\u00a0 So what happened?\u00a0 Fear.<\/p>\n

Regardless of your thoughts on Covid 19, the economic impact is going to be indisputably significant.\u00a0 It starts with taking 100 million Chinese out of the workforce for what, six or eight weeks?\u00a0 Think that will impact things?\u00a0 From there we\u2019ve seen the disruptions, and sadly, we\u2019re probably in the early stages of the full impact across the globe and here at home in the US.<\/p>\n

So, back to the supply and demand problem, investors (and I\u2019m not talking about individuals, I\u2019m talking about China, CalPERS, Goldman Sachs, State Farm, AIG, and others of that scale) were posed with a problem:\u00a0 Where do I put my money as the sh*t hits the fan?\u00a0 They didn\u2019t know.\u00a0 It could go to equities, and risk losing 10% in a day.\u00a0 It could go into commodities.\u00a0 It could go into bonds, and get paid .3% on a US 10yr Treasury.\u00a0 It could go into Mortgage Backed Securities, or it could just be held as cash.\u00a0 Obviously, that\u2019s a little over-simplified, but you get the point.<\/p>\n

The last time we had a meltdown like this, in 2009, who stepped in as the primary buyer?\u00a0 Yep.\u00a0 The Fed.\u00a0 Now, we don\u2019t know what they\u2019ll do in their meeting this week.\u00a0 I expect more \u201cshock and awe\u201d and probably some ramping back up of their QE program (which they actually rekindled back in September) and they will likely come back to buying mortgage backed securities.\u00a0 We\u2019ll see.<\/p>\n

Regardless, going back to supply and demand, you now have a whole lot of money sitting in lenders\u2019 coffers needing to be sold.\u00a0 There\u2019s supply and no demand.\u00a0 Mortgage applications for refinances skyrocketed in the last three weeks or so.\u00a0 Once they work through that supply, what will happen?<\/p>\n

My guess is, if an institutional or governmental investor has the option of getting paid between .3% (a never before seen low in 10yr US Treasuries) or putting your money in equities, or commodities, or mortgages, you might think that taking a 3% to 3.5% return by lending money to John and June Jones at 50% loan to value ratio, with high credit scores, stable jobs, and money in the bank, you might find that\u2019s the least dirty shirt in the laundry, and put it on.<\/p>\n

Additionally, with rates that low, the risk of early payoff is not very high, so you\u2019re looking at a likely long-term return, at relatively low risk at a very predictable rate.\u00a0 Investors like that, even if it\u2019s not the level of return they may like.<\/p>\n

If the Fed steps in and does some significant buying, that will likely help too.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s going to be interesting to watch it all unfold.\u00a0 The spike in mortgage rates from the morning of Monday the 9th<\/sup> through to closing at the end of the day Friday the 13th<\/sup>, is unlike anything I\u2019ve ever seen before, including the crazy times of the \u201cGreat Recession\u201d.\u00a0 Most lenders pulled rates higher by .5% to .75% for the same cost\/credit inside of five days.\u00a0 It was nutty.<\/p>\n

Now, to keep all that in perspective?\u00a0 Rates are still ridiculous.\u00a0 When we\u2019re talking about rates not being great when you can get say 4% no points no fees on a 30yr fixed loan, or 3.25% on a 15yr, that\u2019s crazy.<\/p>\n

But, it is what it is.\u00a0 We\u2019ve been at a ridiculous level for 10yrs now, and we think it\u2019s normal.\u00a0 It may be normal, now, really.\u00a0 But regardless, the point of this update is really to explain the difference of where things are, and where you may hear things are, and shine a little light on why that is.\u00a0 I hope it helps.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll see where it goes from here.\u00a0 But I don\u2019t believe the line in the sand that mortgage lenders are currently trying to hold, to drive demand on their back-end, will last.\u00a0 I think it will break.\u00a0 That may not be great for some, but for others it will provide some terrific opportunities.\u00a0 We\u2019ll see how it shakes down.<\/p>\n

As always, I\u2019ll do my best to keep you posted.\u00a0 And, you know you can always reach out to me, as well.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, best wishes to you and yours and stay healthy out there.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s where rates ended last week.<\/p>\n

E<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Conforming<\/strong><\/td>\nRates<\/strong><\/td>\nPoints<\/strong><\/td>\nAPR<\/strong><\/td>\nLoan Amt<\/strong><\/td>\nPayment<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n3.375%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.425%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,326<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n3.000%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.050%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,072<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n2.875%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.125%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,245<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7\/1 ARM<\/td>\n3.125%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.175%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,285<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jumbo (ask me about Super Conforming limit, per your zip code)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n3.875%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.905%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 555,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,610<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n3.875%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.905%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 555,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4,071<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n3.375%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.405%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 555,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,454<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10\/1 ARM<\/td>\n3.500%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.530%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 555,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,492<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rates subject to change without notice.<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Please keep in mind, these rates and statistics are for informational purposes only to give you a sense of market movement and my opinion as to why.\u00a0 Although these rates exist today, based on certain qualifying characteristics (760+ fico, owner occupied SFR with 75% loan to value ratio or less and $200,000+ loan amount), your scenario may allow for lower or higher interest rates.\u00a0 Licensed by the CA Dept of Real Estate, #01760965.\u00a0 NMLS: 239756.\u00a0 Equal Opportunity Housing Lender.\u00a0 If you’d like to be removed from this list, please reply with REMOVE in the subject line.\u00a0 You can also use this link, mailto:eric@ezmortgages.us and add REMOVE to the subject line.\u00a0 To add someone who would appreciate this information, send me their email with SUBSCRIBE as subject.<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

Eric Grathwol<\/p>\n

Broker<\/p>\n

EZ Mortgages, Inc.<\/p>\n

4535 Missouri Flat Rd. Ste. 2E<\/p>\n

Placerville, CA 95667<\/p>\n

Office: 530-303-3643<\/p>\n

Cell: 916-223-4235<\/p>\n

Fax: 530-237-5800<\/p>\n

NMLS: 239756<\/p>\n

www.ezmortgages.us<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A funny thing happened on the way to the lowest interest rates in history. 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