{"id":715,"date":"2019-11-25T09:23:12","date_gmt":"2019-11-25T17:23:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ezmortgages.us\/?p=715"},"modified":"2019-12-09T09:23:36","modified_gmt":"2019-12-09T17:23:36","slug":"ez-mortgage-monitor-november-25-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-november-25-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"EZ Mortgage Monitor – November 25, 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

What if a recession isn\u2019t on the horizon for the US? What if the United States economy could chug along for another two, five or ten years without a recession? It\u2019s possible. I don\u2019t really think it\u2019s likely, but it\u2019s possible.<\/p>\n

Did you know Australia hasn\u2019t had a recession in nearly 30 years? Could that happen here?<\/p>\n

The US economy is currently in its longest expansion in history, having grown without a recession for the last decade. And, although GDP growth remains somewhat tepid, by historic growth standards for the US, it is still growing.<\/p>\n

And, many believe the lower growth rate, around 2%, is largely driven by demographics that are hard to fight, regardless of fiscal or monetary policy. The largest generation in our history, the Baby Boomers, are moving into their later years, which changes the economic footprint they leave behind. And, our population isn\u2019t growing as much as it has historically, so the next cycle of such a large work force \u2013 the millennials \u2013 are only now entering their prime earning (and spending) years. And, since 70% of our economy is driven by consumption, we may be in for a longer period of lower growth than we\u2019re used to.<\/p>\n

Could the current mix of an accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, with historically low interest rates, and large balance sheet, along with full employment, corporate profits and nominal wage growth, all without the bite of inflationary pressures, last indefinitely?<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a saying that economic expansions don\u2019t die of old age. There\u2019s usually a shock to the system that pushes the economic needle towards recession. Could we have finally gotten better at avoiding or managing those shocks?<\/p>\n

The US China Trade War may be more of a low voltage pulse, than an outright shock. At least so far. And, if the current momentum towards negotiating a Phase One deal remains intact, which seems to vary by the day, that would certainly help ease the pain. And, if a deal is reached, it could provide a decently sized positive wave throughout our economy.
\nAccording to Chris Williamson Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit (https:\/\/ihsmarkit.com\/research-analysis\/us-flash-pmi-hits-four-month-high-nov19.html) \u201ctheir Flash Composite PMI \u2122 signals the fastest growth for four months (although the fourth quarter still looks to be weak). Factories report the largest rise in production this year, and services growth lifts from near ten-year lows, and there were net job gains after two months of losses.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

If the US and China can find common ground on a trade deal, maybe that would spark another sustained uptick in economic activity.<\/p>\n

On the monetary policy front, the Fed announced at their last meeting, their third rate cut this year. And, although they appear to be prepping the markets for a pause in rate cuts, it seems they are ready to act as needed. And, they are working to do so preemptively, vs. after it may be too late. As they say, being \u201cdata dependent\u201d in their analysis of which steps to take next.<\/p>\n

Another tool they recently returned to is growing their balance sheet again. They\u2019re reinvesting proceeds of sales, rather than just letting them roll off and shrinking their balance sheet. They\u2019re primarily focused on the short end of the curve now, vs. the longer end, but as you can see in the chart below, the increase in their holdings since September is pretty significant. Some might call it QE4 or QE light. Others note that it\u2019s the same practice they employed before the Great Recession, to maintain their balance sheet size. But, their balance sheet is just five times larger now than it was in 2008.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Could all those factors, among others, continue to drive economic growth well through 2020 and beyond? It\u2019s certainly possible.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, it was only about three months ago, when the yield curve inverted (when the 2-yr treasury yield was higher than the 10-yr treasury yield) which many consider is a symptom of economic softening that often points to a recession within a relatively short period of time (12-24 months, typically). And, a recession may still be in our near-term future, but what if it\u2019s not?<\/p>\n

Could we continue bouncing around with low, but positive economic growth, equities chugging to new highs, and mortgage rates and treasury yields hovering near historic lows for years to come?<\/p>\n

I guess we\u2019ll find out as we roll into the Holidays, and turn the corner into 2020.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll do my best to keep you posted as things develop.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, if you, your family or friends are looking to buy or refinance and have questions about home mortgage rates, or any other real estate financing, I hope you won\u2019t hesitate to reach out.<\/p>\n

Best wishes to you and yours for a terrific Thanksgiving. I continue to be amazed by how much I can be thankful for.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s where rates started this week.<\/p>\n

Cheers!<\/p>\n

E<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Conforming<\/strong><\/td>\nRates<\/strong><\/td>\nPoints<\/strong><\/td>\nAPR<\/strong><\/td>\nLoan Amt<\/strong><\/td>\nPayment<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n3.625%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.675%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,368<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n3.250%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.300%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,108<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n3.375%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.625%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,326<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10\/1 ARM<\/td>\n4.125%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.175%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,454<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jumbo (ask me about Super Conforming limit, per your zip code)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n4.125%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.155%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 555,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,690<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n3.875%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.905%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 555,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4,071<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n3.375%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.405%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 555,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,454<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10\/1 ARM<\/td>\n3.750%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.780%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 555,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,570<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rates subject to change without notice.<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Please keep in mind, these rates and statistics are for informational purposes only to give you a sense of market movement and my opinion as to why.\u00a0 Although these rates exist today, based on certain qualifying characteristics (760+ fico, owner occupied SFR with 75% loan to value ratio or less and $250,000+ loan amount), your scenario may allow for lower or higher interest rates.\u00a0 Licensed by the CA Dept of Real Estate, #01760965.\u00a0 NMLS: 239756.\u00a0 Equal Opportunity Housing Lender.\u00a0 If you’d like to be removed from this list, please reply with REMOVE in the subject line.\u00a0 You can also use this link, mailto:eric@ezmortgages.us and add REMOVE to the subject line.\u00a0 To add someone who would appreciate this information, send me their email with SUBSCRIBE as subject.<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Eric Grathwol
\nBroker
\nEZ Mortgages, Inc.
\n4535 Missouri Flat Rd. Ste. 2E
\nPlacerville, CA 95667
\nOffice: 530-303-3643
\nCell: 916-223-4235
\nFax: 530-237-5800
\nNMLS: 239756
\nwww.ezmortgages.us<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What if a recession isn\u2019t on the horizon for the US? What if the United States economy could chug along […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nEZ Mortgage Monitor - November 25, 2019 - EZ Mortgages, Inc.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-november-25-2019\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EZ Mortgage Monitor - November 25, 2019 - EZ Mortgages, Inc.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What if a recession isn\u2019t on the horizon for the US? 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