{"id":703,"date":"2019-05-20T13:32:49","date_gmt":"2019-05-20T20:32:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ezmortgages.us\/?p=703"},"modified":"2019-06-11T13:33:07","modified_gmt":"2019-06-11T20:33:07","slug":"ez-mortgage-monitor-may-20-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-may-20-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"EZ Mortgage Monitor – May 20, 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

As we roll into the mid-point of the year, mortgage rates are back at the lower end of their last 12-month trading range.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Yet, I won\u2019t be surprised if they trend lower as we roll through this year.\u00a0 I don\u2019t expect a huge shift, but I do think they\u2019ll be incrementally lower.<\/p>\n

Why?\u00a0 There are a few things that drive my thinking, but the biggest one lately is that the trade war with China may be a long, protracted, and economically costly endeavor for both sides.\u00a0 And, if the two largest economies in the world catch a cold, the rest of the world may get a flu, to recycle an old phrase.<\/p>\n

And, speaking of old phrases, there\u2019s an old Chinese saying, \u201cThat in war, one must prepare to lose 800 of their own to kill 1000 of the enemy\u201d (Wang Xiangwei, South China Morning Post columnist July 14, 2018).<\/p>\n

Additionally, although the US has more economic heft, China may have a unique advantage in a trade war, in that there\u2019s little separation between public and private entities so they can subsidize companies and citizens alike, to ease the pain.\u00a0 It\u2019s part and parcel of their normal operating procedure (and a big part of why their trade practices are not entirely \u201cfree and fair\u201d and why the US is now employing tariffs as a tactic).<\/p>\n

On top of that, since Xi Jinping is now President for Life, he doesn\u2019t have political considerations to contend with.\u00a0 In fact, right now, Xi and his mouth pieces through the Chinese media are stoking their nationalist flames, trying to mobilize their populace to support China, and spurn the US, while preparing for a long fight.<\/p>\n

Moreover, since there\u2019s little separation between Chinese businesses and its government, they can apply undue pressure (read hassle factor) on US companies doing business there.\u00a0 If you\u2019re a fan of Monty Python, think of the skit when the mobsters harass the British Army.\u00a0 Then there\u2019s the whole \u201crare earth\u201d materials market, which largely stem from China.<\/p>\n

If both sides dig in, rather than looking for common ground and ways to ease the tension, this may be something that sticks with the world for more than just a few months.\u00a0 It could very well be years.<\/p>\n

In terms of economic impact, I found two analyses of the potential toll tariffs on Chinese goods and their retaliatory measures, if fully implemented, could take on the US economy.\u00a0 The Tax Foundation (https:\/\/taxfoundation.org\/trump-tariffs-income-impact\/<\/a>) a tax policy think tank, and Trade Partnership Worldwide (www.tradepartnership.com<\/a>) a trade consultancy, seem to have taken the most in-depth and comprehensive look at the impact of the trade war with China.\u00a0 The Tax Foundation projects that we could see a .75% drag on Gross Domestic Product, while Trade Partnership Worldwide projects a full 1%+ drag potential, if the proposed tariffs and China\u2019s retaliatory measures go all-in.<\/p>\n

If those estimates are correct, to quote Ross Perot, \u201cyou\u2019ll hear a giant sucking sound\u201d out of the US economy\u2026.\u00a0 Interestingly, he used that phrase to disparage NAFTA\u2026<\/p>\n

The bottom line is that international trade is complicated and messy stuff.\u00a0 Globalization has absolutely displaced US manufacturing workers.\u00a0 And, China certainly works to tilt the scales in their favor in their trade practices.\u00a0 But, globalization is also in large part what has kept the cost of most consumer goods down, too, while also improving economic realities for people across the globe.\u00a0 Plus, we like our stuff, and we want it cheap.\u00a0 Globalization facilitates that.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, it\u2019s possible that cooler heads prevail.\u00a0 The economic impact could actually bring both parties back to the table to make a deal.\u00a0 The trickier part of that is that for that to happen, I believe they\u2019d have to create a structure that would allow both leaders to present a win to their respective countries.\u00a0 This may be easier said than done.<\/p>\n

According to a South China Morning Post story by Kinling Lo published on May 16, 2019, what killed the latest round of talks was that the Chinese delegation removed specific benchmarks outlining the obligations it was required to meet in order to lift existing, and avoid further sanctions.\u00a0 Apparently from the Chinese side, they want all sanctions lifted immediately upon an agreement.<\/p>\n

If accurate, and it does jive with the US Administrations claim that \u201cChina reneged\u201d on their part of the deal, bridging that impasse may prove difficult.<\/p>\n

China and Xi are already fighting who they perceive as the bully of the world, in this war.\u00a0 And there\u2019s no doubt, Xi would love to make China the world\u2019s pre-eminent super power.\u00a0 For Xi to acquiesce may not be the look of strength he\u2019d like to portray. \u00a0And, Xi, knowing Donald Trump is almost fully into re-election mode, may try to ride out the next 18 months, hoping the economic pain in the US is enough to unseat the Trump Administration.<\/p>\n

President Trump, on the other hand, believes trade wars can be won.\u00a0 And, he feels that his \u201ctough on China\u201d talk and trade policy will help him get re-elected, despite potentially negative economic consequences.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no doubt every US administration, basically since Nixon normalized relations, has had the same issues w\/ China, their trade policies, and intellectual property theft.\u00a0 So far, nobody has tried tariffs as a tactic.\u00a0 We\u2019ll see if it works.<\/p>\n

If they come back to the table, and give the US the concessions and benchmarks towards achieving what we\u2019re demanding, it may well prove worth it.\u00a0 If not?\u00a0 Then it\u2019s possible nothing will have changed, other than slowing economic growth in the two largest economies of the world, just as a business cycle may have been set to turn downward anyway.<\/p>\n

If that\u2019s the case, trade relations may get worse, before they get better.\u00a0 Meanwhile, the average American and Chinese will shoulder the burden.\u00a0 That\u2019s not good news economically, but, usually that is good for interest rates as money moves to the relative safety of US Treasuries, bonds and mortgage backed securities during economic downturns.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, if a deal is made, even if it\u2019s something that really just returns to the status quo, stocks would likely rally, at the expense of the fixed income markets.\u00a0 If only I could see the future\u2026 Either way, It\u2019ll be interesting to watch it all unfold.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, if you, your family or friends are looking to buy or refinance and have questions about home mortgage rates, or any other real estate financing, I hope you won\u2019t hesitate to reach out.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s where rates started this week.<\/p>\n

Cheers!<\/p>\n

E<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Conforming<\/strong><\/td>\nRates<\/strong><\/td>\nPoints<\/strong><\/td>\nAPR<\/strong><\/td>\nLoan Amt<\/strong><\/td>\nPayment<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n4.000%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.050%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,432<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n3.625%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.675%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,163<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n3.625%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.875%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,368<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10\/1 ARM<\/td>\n4.125%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.175%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,454<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jumbo (ask me about Super Conforming limit, per your zip code)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n4.250%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.280%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 555,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,730<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n4.000%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.030%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 555,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4,105<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n4.000%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.030%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 555,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,650<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10\/1 ARM<\/td>\n4.125%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.155%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 555,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,690<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rates subject to change without notice.<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Please keep in mind, these rates and statistics are for informational purposes only to give you a sense of market movement and my opinion as to why.\u00a0 Although these rates exist today, based on certain qualifying characteristics (760+ fico, owner occupied SFR with 75% loan to value ratio or less and $250,000+ loan amount), your scenario may allow for lower or higher interest rates.\u00a0 Licensed by the CA Dept of Real Estate, #01760965.\u00a0 NMLS: 239756.\u00a0 Equal Opportunity Housing Lender.\u00a0 If you’d like to be removed from this list, please reply with REMOVE in the subject line.\u00a0 You can also use this link, mailto:eric@ezmortgages.us and add REMOVE to the subject line.\u00a0 To add someone who would appreciate this information, send me their email with SUBSCRIBE as subject.<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As we roll into the mid-point of the year, mortgage rates are back at the lower end of their last […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-703","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nEZ Mortgage Monitor - May 20, 2019 - EZ Mortgages, Inc.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-may-20-2019\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EZ Mortgage Monitor - May 20, 2019 - EZ Mortgages, Inc.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As we roll into the mid-point of the year, mortgage rates are back at the lower end of their last […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-may-20-2019\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EZ Mortgages, Inc.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-05-20T20:32:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-06-11T20:33:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fredgraph-300x146.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ezmortg1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ezmortg1\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-may-20-2019\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-may-20-2019\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ezmortg1\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/#\/schema\/person\/3a63609e83124edec0c415ee52bfdb9c\"},\"headline\":\"EZ Mortgage Monitor – May 20, 2019\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-05-20T20:32:49+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-06-11T20:33:07+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-may-20-2019\/\"},\"wordCount\":1287,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-may-20-2019\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fredgraph-300x146.png\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-may-20-2019\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-may-20-2019\/\",\"name\":\"EZ Mortgage Monitor - 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