{"id":680,"date":"2018-09-07T09:20:19","date_gmt":"2018-09-07T16:20:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ezmortgages.us\/?p=680"},"modified":"2018-09-12T09:20:52","modified_gmt":"2018-09-12T16:20:52","slug":"ez-mortgage-monitor-september-7-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-september-7-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"EZ Mortgage Monitor – September 7, 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s a recession coming.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the easy call to make.\u00a0 The harder part is calling when it will arrive.<\/p>\n

Most economic pundits and analysts are saying we\u2019ll see the next recession in 2019 or 2020.\u00a0 That\u2019s a pretty broad range.\u00a0 My personal best guess is a bit broader still, ranging anywhere from say six months, to maybe as long as 36 months out.\u00a0 Although I do think it\u2019ll be on the closer end of that spectrum, there\u2019s no way anyone can know with certainty.\u00a0 Even the official arbiters of recessions, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) only put firm dates on them after they\u2019ve come and gone.<\/p>\n

The common definition of a recession is when GDP (Gross Domestic Product) sees negative growth for two consecutive quarters.\u00a0 Although, the NBER does include a number of other metrics in how they determine when the US economy has been through a recession (http:\/\/www.nber.org\/cycles\/recessions_faq.html<\/a>) and they don\u2019t \u201crequire\u201d two consecutive quarters of negative growth.<\/p>\n

Regardless of what defines a recession, however, it\u2019s important to remember that recessions have always been a part of the economic cycle.\u00a0 Their severity will vary, but in many ways, they\u2019re a healthy part of the cycle, cleaning out excesses in certain areas, and allowing new opportunities for growth to blossom.<\/p>\n

But, knowing we\u2019ve been through a recession after the fact is less helpful than planning for one before it happens, despite the difficulty in knowing the timing of when the next recession may hit.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, in many cases, the \u201cplanning\u201d for a recession may not really mean doing much differently with your finances, other than buckling down, and if possible, looking for, and being ready to seize new opportunities that may arise.<\/p>\n

In my lifetime, for example, I\u2019ve been through seven recessions.\u00a0 But, in honesty, the only one I really saw impact anyone directly was the Great Recession of 10 years ago (not to say the other six didn\u2019t impact people, but it wasn\u2019t as nearly wide-spread).\u00a0 And, although at least one guy I read (John Mauldin) thinks we\u2019re headed for a catastrophe that\u2019ll make the Great Recession look like child\u2019s play \u2013 he calls it The Great Reset \u2013 he\u2019s the first to admit, that could be ten or twenty or thirty years down the road.\u00a0 And in the meantime, we\u2019re likely to see several other recessions come and go, along with new economic expansions, and great opportunities, as well.<\/p>\n

That said, here are some key metrics to consider as potential leading indicators that may provide some clues about the timing for our next recession.<\/p>\n

My favorite is the unemployment rate:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

As you can see, pretty much without fail for the last 70 or so years, there\u2019s a recession not far after the unemployment rate hits a cycle low.<\/p>\n

According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve\u2019s Economic Research Team, the average lag from the unemployment rate trough to the next recession is about 9 months (https:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/publications\/economic-synopses\/2018\/06\/01\/recession-signals-the-yield-curve-vs-unemployment-rate-troughs\/<\/a>).<\/p>\n

We obviously don\u2019t yet know if May\u2019s 3.8% unemployment rate is the trough for this cycle (it was 4% in June and 3.9% in today\u2019s report for August), but I think we can safely say it\u2019s closer to the bottom than the top, right?<\/p>\n

So, if that does turn out to be the trough, and the average span between that trough and the next recession holds (granted, those are two decent IF\u2019s) we\u2019d be looking at a recession starting sometime around the spring or early summer of 2019.\u00a0 That does sort of fit with my \u201cgut\u201d read of saying we may see bigger signs of our economy rolling over into recession territory, about six months from now.<\/p>\n

Another favored indicator of impending recession is the Yield Curve (the gap between short term and long-term interest rates) \u2013 or rather the inversion of the Yield.\u00a0 The Yield Curve between the 2yr and 10yr treasury yield is at 24 basis points (.24%) and currently sits at its lowest level in years.\u00a0 Going all the way out to the 30yr only earns an additional 14 basis points.\u00a0 That\u2019s a narrow spread between the risk of holding a bond for 2yrs and 30yrs.\u00a0 A lot can happen in 30yrs.<\/p>\n

Recently, however, some economists wonder whether the yield curve inversion is as significant an indicator as it has been historically.\u00a0 But, even looking historically, and comparing yield curve inversion to the cycle low unemployment rate, the latter is a more accurate predictor than the former, according to the St. Louis Fed\u2019s research cited above.<\/p>\n

Lastly, the raising of the Federal Funds Rate is designed to cool economic expansions, keeping them from overheating.\u00a0 And, that overheating can lead to \u201cirrational exuberance\u201d ie: bubbles, which when burst, can make the next recession more painful (see The Great Recession).\u00a0 So, the Fed, trying to adhere to their mandate of maintaining price stability and moderating long-term interest rates, tries to smooth that curve.\u00a0 However, it\u2019s rare that the Fed has been able to engineer soft economic landings during their monetary tightening cycles.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve now seen seven increases to the Federal Funds Rate, since Dec. of 2015.\u00a0 It\u2019s a foregone conclusion that at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Sept. 26th<\/sup>, they\u2019ll raise the Fed Funds Rate for the 8th<\/sup> time, by another .25%, pushing their target range from 2% to 2.25%.\u00a0 Today\u2019s employment report and the increase in average hourly wages only heightened analyst\u2019s certainty of the same.\u00a0 That will push Prime up to 5.25%.\u00a0 What that does to mortgage rates remains to be seen.\u00a0 They\u2019ve been particularly sticky for the last six months, trading within a pretty narrow range.\u00a0 It\u2019s possible that will remain the case as we move through the third quarter of 2018, as well.\u00a0 Having said that, today was a bad day in mortgage pricing, losing roughly .125% on the interest rate, for the same cost\/credit as we had yesterday.\u00a0 In the big picture, that\u2019s still not a large shift.\u00a0 Unless it\u2019s your money.\u00a0 Then?\u00a0 You\u2019re wondering why you can\u2019t get that 4.25% rate for no points, and it\u2019s now 4.375%.<\/p>\n

What we\u2019ll see as we roll through the latter part of this year, and into 2019 is still anyone\u2019s guess.\u00a0 My guess, is that we\u2019re likely going to remain in this same basic range for mortgage rates.\u00a0 But?\u00a0 That will all be driven by the economic cycle, and the demand for the returns that buying Mortgage Backed Securities provides investors, relative to the risk and return of the other available options.<\/p>\n

As to when the next recession will hit, and how you can prepare for it?\u00a0 The best plan is to be secure in your job, income, and expenses, so if things turn a little south in your world, you\u2019re able to ride through that.\u00a0 So, pay down debt, build savings, and otherwise, keep enjoying life.<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re flush with cash and secure in your income\/employment?\u00a0 It may make sense to take some money off the table, and be ready to deploy it when opportunities arise.\u00a0 Sure, you may leave some money on the table doing that, getting out early when the markets are still rising, but at least half the battle of making it through recessions is not losing as much as the market may otherwise take.\u00a0 Getting out early, and missing the last bit of upward movement, may be better than being late, and participating in the first part of the next drop.<\/p>\n

As you know, I\u2019ll do my best to keep you posted as things evolve.\u00a0 But, I\u2019m just a mortgage guy with an opinion, and my crystal ball is as murky as anyone\u2019s, so, best to do your homework and forge the path that you think serves you best.\u00a0 As always, don\u2019t hesitate to reach out so we can discuss how I can help in that process.\u00a0 If you, your friends, clients, or family have questions about buying or refinancing residential or commercial real estate, I\u2019m always happy to be a resource.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s where rates are as of this weekend.<\/p>\n

Cheers!<\/p>\n

E<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Conforming<\/strong><\/td>\nRates<\/strong><\/td>\nPoints<\/strong><\/td>\nAPR<\/strong><\/td>\nLoan Amt<\/strong><\/td>\nPayment<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n4.375%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.425%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,498<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n3.875%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.925%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,200<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n3.875%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.125%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,411<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10\/1 ARM<\/td>\n4.375%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.425%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,498<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jumbo (ask me about Super Conforming limit, per your zip code)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n4.625%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.655%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,828<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n4.500%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.530%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4,207<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n4.625%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.655%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,828<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10\/1 ARM<\/td>\n4.625%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.655%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,828<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rates subject to change without notice.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Please keep in mind, these rates and statistics are for informational purposes only to give you a sense of market movement and my opinion as to why.\u00a0 Although these rates exist today, based on certain qualifying characteristics (760+ fico, owner occupied SFR with 75% loan to value ratio or less and $250,000+ loan amount), your scenario may allow for lower or higher interest rates.\u00a0 Licensed by the CA Dept of Real Estate, #01760965.\u00a0 NMLS: 239756.\u00a0 Equal Opportunity Housing Lender.\u00a0 If you’d like to be removed from this list, please reply with REMOVE in the subject line.\u00a0 You can also use this link, mailto:eric@ezmortgages.us and add REMOVE to the subject line.\u00a0 To add someone who would appreciate this information, send me their email with SUBSCRIBE as subject.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

Eric Grathwol<\/p>\n

Broker<\/p>\n

EZ Mortgages, Inc.<\/p>\n

4535 Missouri Flat Rd. Ste. 2E<\/p>\n

Placerville, CA 95667<\/p>\n

Office: 530-303-3643<\/p>\n

Cell: 916-223-4235<\/p>\n

Fax: 530-237-5800<\/p>\n

NMLS: 239756<\/p>\n

www.ezmortgages.us<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s a recession coming. That\u2019s the easy call to make.\u00a0 The harder part is calling when it will arrive. Most […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-680","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nEZ Mortgage Monitor - September 7, 2018 - EZ Mortgages, Inc.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-september-7-2018\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EZ Mortgage Monitor - September 7, 2018 - EZ Mortgages, Inc.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There\u2019s a recession coming. 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