{"id":654,"date":"2018-01-08T10:16:18","date_gmt":"2018-01-08T18:16:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ezmortgages.us\/?p=654"},"modified":"2018-01-10T10:16:40","modified_gmt":"2018-01-10T18:16:40","slug":"ez-mortgage-monitor-january-8-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-january-8-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"EZ Mortgage Monitor – January 8, 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"

Do you ever wonder where interest rates are headed?<\/p>\n

I do.\u00a0 Not only is it my job to be in touch with those things, but it\u2019s probably the single most frequently asked question I get: \u201cWhat do you think rates are going to do?\u201d<\/p>\n

The honest answer I give is, \u201cI don\u2019t know.\u00a0 If I did, I could see the future, and I\u2019d be sitting on my favorite beach or slope-side chalet, sipping my favorite beverage, instead of helping you with your real estate financing.\u201d<\/p>\n

But, as I thought about that question as we rolled into 2018, I decided to take a deeper dive.\u00a0 Of course, we\u2019ve been in a declining interest rate environment my entire 15 year career as a Mortgage Broker, so my perspective may be a bit skewed by that reality.\u00a0 But regardless, it goes deeper than that, I found.<\/p>\n

Since 1974, when mortgage rates began being tracked on a weekly basis, we\u2019ve seen rates end the year lower than they entered it, a full 57% of the time (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).\u00a0 And, that includes the spike we saw during the \u201chyper-inflation\u201d days between the late 1970s and the early 1980s, which covers roughly 7-8 years.\u00a0 Additionally, about 9% of the time, mortgage rates were basically flat as they rolled into the New Year.\u00a0 That leaves roughly 36% of the time that we\u2019ve seen rates increase from the start of one year, to the end of the same year.<\/p>\n

Of course, past performance is not a reliable measure of future returns.\u00a0 Nevertheless, it\u2019s an interesting fact to think about, particularly since rates are again lower now, than they were leaving 2017 and entering 2017.<\/p>\n

So what\u2019s that mean for us, and what might mortgage rates actually do this year?<\/p>\n

Again, nobody really knows.\u00a0 But, it does feel like 2017 was about a bond market (and mortgage backed securities market) looking for direction.\u00a0 Or maybe it was about a bond and MBS market not so much looking for direction, but not really believing the \u201chype\u201d of the equity markets.<\/p>\n

Judging by the stock market, breaking through 25,000 on the DOW, everything is rosy, right?\u00a0 We\u2019ve got continued jobs growth.\u00a0 We\u2019ve got new tax legislation that is supposed to prime the pump of the economic growth engine.\u00a0 We\u2019ve got a pro-business, pro-growth administration in the White House and Congress.<\/p>\n

So what could go wrong?<\/p>\n

Well, inflation \u2013 as conventionally measured \u2013 is still below where the \u201cexperts\u201d think it should be when the unemployment rate is at a 17-year low.\u00a0 Wage growth, a key driver of inflationary pressures, is still lagging behind expectations.\u00a0 It\u2019s possible that the tax legislation will stunt its own economic impact by further expanding our national debt.\u00a0 At some point, deficits do matter; the odd thing is, they don\u2019t until suddenly they do (Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have written extensively about this).\u00a0\u00a0 Job growth, although still increasing handsomely, has actually been on a declining trend since 2014 (Bureau of Labor Statistics).\u00a0 And lastly, we\u2019re entering the 9th<\/sup> year of an economic expansion.\u00a0 That is the third longest economic expansion in US history.\u00a0 So again, what could go wrong?<\/p>\n

On the other hand?\u00a0 Money remains cheap and easy.\u00a0 Corporations (and it\u2019s really the small and mid-sized businesses that create the most jobs) will likely enhance profit margins as a result of paying less in taxes.\u00a0 Maybe they\u2019ll pass some of those profits back into growing their companies by hiring more people, and paying the employees they have more money.\u00a0 It\u2019s possible that the economic juice of the tax cuts will see a continued run up in equities, benefiting the net worth of those participating in the those markets, enhancing the \u201ceconomic mood\u201d.\u00a0 It seems that the supply of homes is still lagging demand, so home values could continue increasing steadily for the foreseeable future, bolstering the net worth of homeowners in the US.<\/p>\n

But the bottom line is?\u00a0 Ultimately, it doesn\u2019t matter what happened in the past, nor what might happen in the future with interest rates.\u00a0 It\u2019s about what can they do for you now?\u00a0 It\u2019s relative.\u00a0 Borrowing long-term fixed money in the 3%\u2019s and 4%\u2019s is ridiculous, and can be pretty powerful.\u00a0 But, it seems ridiculous to get 15% on your savings account, too, and that happened, as well.<\/p>\n

For my part, I see 2018 as largely a repeat of 2017, at least for bonds and mortgage backed securities.\u00a0 In my estimation, I\u2019m not sure we\u2019re going to see much of a change in either direction with interest rates as we move through this year, despite the Fed and their continued (or projected to continue) increase of the Federal Funds Rate.\u00a0 After all, that\u2019s a short term rate that is only loosely correlated to Mortgage Backed Securities.\u00a0 MBS are bought, held and sold by investors.\u00a0 If the demand is there, prices will remain intact, and rates will follow suit.\u00a0 If that demand falters, prices will drop, and rates will rise.\u00a0 Supply and demand is the ultimate arbiter.<\/p>\n

Regardless of what happens, I\u2019ll do my best to keep you posted, and share my insight into what\u2019s happening and give you my perspective on why.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, please don\u2019t hesitate to call or email if you, your friends, clients, or family have questions about buying or refinancing residential or commercial real estate.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s where rates are as of this weekend.<\/p>\n

Cheers!<\/p>\n

E<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Conforming<\/strong><\/td>\nRates<\/strong><\/td>\nPoints<\/strong><\/td>\nAPR<\/strong><\/td>\nLoan Amt<\/strong><\/td>\nPayment<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n3.750%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.800%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,389<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n3.375%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.425%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,126<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n3.750%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.000%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,389<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10\/1 ARM<\/td>\n3.750%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.800%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,389<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jumbo (ask me about Super Conforming limit, per your zip code)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n3.875%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.905%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,586<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n3.500%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.530%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3,932<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n4.125%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.155%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,666<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10\/1\/ ARM<\/td>\n4.000%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.030%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,626<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rates subject to change without notice.<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Please keep in mind, these rates and statistics are for informational purposes only to give you a sense of market movement and my opinion as to why.\u00a0 Although these rates exist today, based on certain qualifying characteristics (760+ fico, owner occupied SFR with 75% loan to value ratio or less and $250,000+ loan amount), your scenario may allow for lower or higher interest rates.\u00a0 Licensed by the CA Dept of Real Estate, #01760965.\u00a0 NMLS: 239756.\u00a0 Equal Opportunity Housing Lender.\u00a0 If you’d like to be removed from this list, please reply with REMOVE in the subject line.\u00a0 You can also use this link, mailto:eric@ezmortgages.us and add REMOVE to the subject line.\u00a0 To add someone who would appreciate this information, send me their email with SUBSCRIBE as subject.<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Eric Grathwol<\/p>\n

Broker<\/p>\n

EZ Mortgages, Inc.<\/p>\n

4535 Missouri Flat Rd. Ste. 2E<\/p>\n

Placerville, CA 95667<\/p>\n

Office: 530-303-3643<\/p>\n

Cell: 916-223-4235<\/p>\n

Fax: 530-237-5800<\/p>\n

NMLS: 239756<\/p>\n

www.ezmortgages.us<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Do you ever wonder where interest rates are headed? I do.\u00a0 Not only is it my job to be in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-654","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nEZ Mortgage Monitor - January 8, 2018 - EZ Mortgages, Inc.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-january-8-2018\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EZ Mortgage Monitor - January 8, 2018 - EZ Mortgages, Inc.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Do you ever wonder where interest rates are headed? 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