{"id":611,"date":"2017-04-07T21:24:30","date_gmt":"2017-04-08T04:24:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ezmortgages.us\/?p=611"},"modified":"2017-04-11T21:24:49","modified_gmt":"2017-04-12T04:24:49","slug":"ez-mortgage-monitor-april-7-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-april-7-2017\/","title":{"rendered":"EZ Mortgage Monitor – April 7, 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"

What does retirement mean to you?<\/p>\n

I consider myself pretty fortunate to really enjoy what I do, and make a reasonable living doing it.\u00a0 By some measures, a great living.\u00a0 Nevertheless, I\u2019m not sure I\u2019ll ever be able to \u201cretire\u201d in the true sense of the word.<\/p>\n

Fortunately for me, I can do my work just as easily from a beach in Mexico, or a mountain retreat with fresh tracks out my door, as I can from my desk right now.\u00a0 Give me a phone and my laptop, and I\u2019m at your service.<\/p>\n

As one of my good friends and partner in a Sacramento law firm has now immortalized in their halls \u201cRetire?\u00a0 Ha.\u00a0 I can do this \u2018til I\u2019m dead.\u201d\u00a0 He was joking, making a flippant remark, but it stuck.\u00a0 Because it\u2019s true.<\/p>\n

My Uncle, who\u2019s been an attorney for longer than I\u2019ve been alive, still practices.\u00a0 Full time.\u00a0 I think he\u2019s 74 now.\u00a0 I don\u2019t know that he needs to, but he likes to.\u00a0 He worries about his clients.\u00a0 And, I believe he feels fulfillment in his work.\u00a0 He can do that, because he works with his mind, which, fortunately, is still functioning quite well.<\/p>\n

Another good friend of mine is an ER Doc.\u00a0 We\u2019re the same age.\u00a0 I don\u2019t know how he does it.\u00a0\u00a0 His shifts are often 24-48hrs on.\u00a0 Then he\u2019s off for a few days.\u00a0 Then back on.\u00a0 Sometimes, he\u2019s got to do those back to back to back, for whatever reason.\u00a0 That\u2019s grueling.\u00a0 Can he do that at 70?\u00a0 Even at 60?\u00a0 He sure hopes he won\u2019t have to.<\/p>\n

On the other end of the spectrum, I have clients \u2013 they just emailed me after my last newsletter, in fact \u2013 letting me know they cashed out of their home in Boulder Creek, CA.\u00a0 Moved to Belize.\u00a0 They built a nice little home, with a garage and a casita\/guest house, about a quarter mile from the beach.\u00a0 $215,000 construction cost.\u00a0 Annual property taxes of $15\/yr.\u00a0 They have enough saved, and a small pension, that they can likely live out their lives that way.\u00a0 That sounds good to me!<\/p>\n

But I bring this up because I\u2019ve been thinking about the US employment picture.\u00a0 You know.\u00a0 Jobs.\u00a0 And, our demographics, and how they may impact that employment picture, and what that means to our economy, and interest rates.<\/p>\n

With today\u2019s employment report, we learned that the official unemployment rate is at 4.5%, which is generally considered \u201cfull employment.\u201d\u00a0 Even the U-6 unemployment level (which includes those working part time when they want full time work, and the marginally attached workers, in addition to the unemployed) is at 8.9%, a level not seen since December of 2007, on the precipice of the Great Recession.<\/p>\n

And yet, despite those relatively robust numbers, we still have a lot of angst about people not making enough to get by, let alone retire. \u00a0The debate over minimum wage and \u201cliving wages\u201d is ongoing.<\/p>\n

We hear about 20-somethings still (or again) living with their parents, whether for economic, or other reasons.\u00a0 My generation is facing \u201cthe squeeze\u201d where some are not only raising children, and putting them through college, but also facing caring for our aging parents.\u00a0 These are in many ways, unprecedented times.<\/p>\n

As my anecdote above illustrates, there are a whole lot of Baby Boomers who are still choosing to work, well after what is allegedly \u201cretirement age.\u201d\u00a0 Some, because they can, and want to.\u00a0 But, for many of them, they don\u2019t have the option to retire.\u00a0 As people do, some are aging more, or less gracefully than others.<\/p>\n

And, that may be the crux of the challenge we\u2019re facing now.\u00a0 Demographics.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve seen two forces at work in our employment picture that we\u2019ve never seen before:<\/p>\n

First, people can, and are choosing to work well into what would have been their \u201cretirement years\u201d.\u00a0 Whether for economic reasons (they need to) or for personal reasons (they like to, they can, etc.) doesn\u2019t really matter.<\/p>\n

The number of workers aged 65+ has risen from roughly four million in 2000 to over nine million now.\u00a0 On top of that, the number of workers aged 55-64 rose from roughly 14 million in 2000 to over 26 million now.\u00a0 You\u2019ll see the other cohorts, aged 25-54, remained relatively flat during that time, as seen in the chart below:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

What impact does that have on our society and labor force?<\/p>\n

Another development that our economy is adjusting to is that women continue comprising a larger percentage of our workforce, and the male labor force participation rate is declining:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

To be clear, the fact that we have an older workforce than ever before, and that there are more women working than ever before are not bad things.\u00a0 But, they are different.\u00a0 Just like the Model T replaced the horse and carriage, and the ice box was replaced by refrigeration, change happens.\u00a0 But, those inflection points can be painful, as economies and societies adjust to their evolving realities.<\/p>\n

One of the chief complaints of our economic malaise has been that although we have been in one of the longest and strongest recoveries in terms of job creation in our history, and seem to be at \u201cfull employment\u201d overall wage gains have been relatively anemic.\u00a0 Is that in part a result of the wage gap between men and women?\u00a0 Is it because as our economy has evolved, technology has displaced human labor, depressing wages?\u00a0 Will this begin to change, now that we\u2019re allegedly at full employment, so workers can begin demanding higher wages?<\/p>\n

Or, are forces conspiring in a deflationary trend, as Baby Boomers \u2013 regardless of their working longer than anyone has before \u2013 begin retiring, or dying, in either case, not consuming or spending as much, and also opening jobs for younger workers who can be paid significantly less?\u00a0 And, as technology continues accelerating, will more workers be displaced?\u00a0 Uber displaced Taxi drivers.\u00a0 Whose jobs will self-driving vehicles take?\u00a0 It could be a lot of people.<\/p>\n

So, as we sit here, with mortgage rates and US Treasury yields still at historic lows, even as our economy seems to be on better footing, will we actually see a level of economic growth that drives interest rates markedly higher?<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve no idea.\u00a0 I sure didn\u2019t think we\u2019d see nearly a decade of ridiculously low interest rates.\u00a0 But, here we are.\u00a0 I don\u2019t think the Japanese thought they\u2019d see about thirty years of ridiculously low interest rates either, which they\u2019re still trying to escape.<\/p>\n

And, are higher interest rates part and parcel of economic growth and prosperity?\u00a0 After all, interest rates were at their zenith in the 1970s and early 1980s, when most people were not very happy with economic growth in America.\u00a0 It wasn\u2019t until interest rates began falling that the US economy really picked up steam (and Baby Boomers blossomed into the workforce, as well).\u00a0 Has that steam run out?\u00a0 Are demographics and our evolving technology and labor force to blame?<\/p>\n

This is the stuff I think about.\u00a0 Then, as people on Capitol Hill clamor for more jobs, and higher paying jobs, and that the unemployment rate, whether U-3 (the standard metric) or U-6 (the more comprehensive one) are still too high, I think of this:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

I\u2019m no economist, but it seems to me that each time we reach a cycle low in the unemployment rate, a recession isn\u2019t too far behind.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t know if the former assures the latter, or not.\u00a0 And, although recessions are an ever-present reality in any economy, and they serve a purpose of cleaning out excess, and allowing for sort of a \u201creset\u201d it may be constructive to be careful what we wish for when it comes to driving unemployment lower.\u00a0 The next recession may be more surprising than the last.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, I\u2019ll do my best to keep you posted as we roll on through this year, and beyond.\u00a0 Please don\u2019t hesitate to call or email if you, your friends, clients, or family have questions about buying or refinancing residential or commercial real estate.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s how our rates ended this week.<\/p>\n

Cheers!<\/p>\n

E<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Conforming<\/strong><\/td>\nRates<\/strong><\/td>\nPoints<\/strong><\/td>\nAPR<\/strong><\/td>\nLoan Amt<\/strong><\/td>\nPayment<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n3.990%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.040%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,431<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n3.250%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.300%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,108<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3\/1 ARM<\/td>\n4.500%<\/td>\n0.5<\/td>\n4.750%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,520<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n3.125%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.175%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,285<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jumbo (ask me about Super Conforming limit, per your zip code)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n4.375%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.405%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,746<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n4.000%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.030%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4,068<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3\/1 ARM<\/td>\n4.000%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.030%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,626<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n3.625%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.655%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,508<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rates subject to change without notice.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Please keep in mind, these rates and statistics are for informational purposes only to give you a sense of market movement and my opinion as to why.\u00a0 Although these rates exist today, based on certain qualifying characteristics (760+ fico, owner occupied SFR with 75% loan to value ratio or less and $250,000+ loan amount), your scenario may allow for lower or higher interest rates.\u00a0 Licensed by the CA Dept of Real Estate, #01760965.\u00a0 NMLS: 239756.\u00a0 Equal Opportunity Housing Lender.\u00a0 If you’d like to be removed from this list, please reply with REMOVE in the subject line.\u00a0 You can also use this link, mailto:eric@ezmortgages.us and add REMOVE to the subject line.\u00a0 To add someone who would appreciate this information, send me their email with SUBSCRIBE as subject.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

Eric Grathwol<\/p>\n

Broker<\/p>\n

EZ Mortgages, Inc.<\/p>\n

4535 Missouri Flat Rd. Ste. 2E<\/p>\n

Placerville, CA 95667<\/p>\n

Office: 530-303-3643<\/p>\n

Cell: 916-223-4235<\/p>\n

Fax: 530-237-5800<\/p>\n

NMLS: 239756<\/p>\n

www.ezmortgages.us<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What does retirement mean to you? I consider myself pretty fortunate to really enjoy what I do, and make a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-611","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nEZ Mortgage Monitor - April 7, 2017 - EZ Mortgages, Inc.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-april-7-2017\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EZ Mortgage Monitor - April 7, 2017 - EZ Mortgages, Inc.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What does retirement mean to you? 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