{"id":564,"date":"2017-01-01T10:57:05","date_gmt":"2017-01-01T18:57:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ezmortgages.us\/?p=564"},"modified":"2017-01-10T10:57:21","modified_gmt":"2017-01-10T18:57:21","slug":"ez-mortgage-monitor-january-1-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-january-1-2017\/","title":{"rendered":"EZ Mortgage Monitor &#8211; January 1, 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Happy New Year!<\/p>\n<p>Wow.\u00a0 Another one in the books.\u00a0 Is it just me, or do the years seem to pass by faster each time?\u00a0 As to mortgage rates, take a look at this snapshot of recent activity:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-567\" src=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-300x140.png\" alt=\"graph\" width=\"476\" height=\"222\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-300x140.png 300w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-768x358.png 768w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-1024x477.png 1024w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-280x130.png 280w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph.png 1429w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 476px) 100vw, 476px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s what the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate has done, in the wake of the Presidential Election and Trump becoming our President Elect.\u00a0 It\u2019s even more interesting, because the eve of the election, most analysts and pundits were predicting the exact opposite, IF Trump were to win.\u00a0 So much for analysts and punditry.<\/p>\n<p>So, is this finally the point where the economy picks up, interest rates rise, and never look back?<\/p>\n<p>Honestly, I have no idea.\u00a0 Although I may be in the minority, this time, I\u2019m increasingly of the mind that won\u2019t be the case.\u00a0 Yet.<\/p>\n<p>For some perspective, let\u2019s look at May 2013, now referred to as the Taper Tantrum, when then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told us, and I\u2019ll paraphrase \u201cat some point, economic conditions will warrant a shift to more normal monetary policy\u201d:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-2-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-565\" src=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-2-1-300x140.png\" alt=\"graph-2\" width=\"465\" height=\"217\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-2-1-300x140.png 300w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-2-1-768x358.png 768w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-2-1-1024x477.png 1024w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-2-1-280x130.png 280w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-2-1.png 1429w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 465px) 100vw, 465px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s a very similar spike to the one we\u2019re in now.\u00a0 At that time, I thought we were lifting off the floor for good.\u00a0 As history has proven, I was wrong.\u00a0 There still wasn\u2019t enough economic growth to achieve escape speed.<\/p>\n<p>Since then, rates basically did nothing but drift lower, with the exception of a few isolated, and eventually temporary, spikes.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-3-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-566\" src=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-3-1-300x140.png\" alt=\"graph-3\" width=\"465\" height=\"217\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-3-1-300x140.png 300w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-3-1-768x358.png 768w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-3-1-1024x477.png 1024w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-3-1-280x130.png 280w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-3-1.png 1429w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 465px) 100vw, 465px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>As you\u2019ll commonly hear when looking at economic and financial metrics, past performance may not be indicative of future results.<\/p>\n<p>So, what will the future hold?\u00a0 It\u2019s anyone\u2019s guess.<\/p>\n<p>One economist I like to read, David Rosenberg of Gluskin Scheff, recently put it this way, again I\u2019m paraphrasing \u201cnothing has changed, other than we have a President Elect who may be somewhat volatile and unpredictable.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Although Trump, like nearly every President Elect, has pivoted from many of his talking points during the election, by looking at his choice of Cabinet posts and advisors, we\u2019re getting a sense of what tone for policy they are likely to try to set: Lower taxes, less regulation, while increasing defense and infrastructure spending (the latter was largely in place but largely blocked by Congress the last 8 years).<\/p>\n<p>Although the goal of those policies is to spur growth, increase Federal revenue, and cut the deficit, it\u2019s unclear whether that can all come to fruition.\u00a0 There\u2019s fear that the budget deficit may grow, not shrink. \u00a0The ripple effects on growth through the economy may or may not materialize, and this, in turn, could stoke inflationary pressure, without much economic growth (except for the few who directly benefit from that increased spending).<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s also true that in most cases, the President of the United States has much less direct impact on the economy than most people think.\u00a0 They tend to inherit, and get the bulk of the credit or blame for, the economic cycle driven by the preceding years.\u00a0 They can set the tone, but there are too many variables beyond their control, and events that they have to react to, that do as much, if not more, to drive the end result than their policy goals coming into office.<\/p>\n<p>An economic system as large as the United States\u2019 doesn\u2019t turn on a dime.\u00a0 It can take several months, or even years for the impact of fiscal policy to ripple through to bottom line impact.\u00a0 Many people believe our next recession may not be far away, regardless of what policies the Trump Administration can implement.<\/p>\n<p>I think we\u2019ll learn a lot over the next month or three, after Donald J Trump actually takes office, about what policies may or may not take shape, and begin to get a sense of their impact on the economic gears of the United States.\u00a0 As every administration finds, we\u2019ll no doubt have some unforeseen events, to which they have to react, that may or may not drive policy in the same direction they\u2019d originally planned.<\/p>\n<p>As all that relates to mortgage rates, stepping back, taking the long view, we can see that we\u2019ve been in the midst of an almost forty year decline.\u00a0 At some point, that decline will end.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-568\" src=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-4-300x140.png\" alt=\"graph-4\" width=\"478\" height=\"223\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-4-300x140.png 300w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-4-768x358.png 768w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-4-1024x477.png 1024w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-4-280x130.png 280w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/graph-4.png 1429w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 478px) 100vw, 478px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>We know, with certainty, rates will not stay low forever.\u00a0 But, nobody has any idea when the underlying economic fundamentals will drive them to move higher, and never look back.\u00a0 Ten years ago, nobody would believe you could get 30yr fixed mortgages, at 3.5%-4%, with no points, and no fees.\u00a0 Let alone that rates would be that low for years.\u00a0 Yet, for a generation of buyers, and homeowners, that\u2019s practically all they know.<\/p>\n<p>Although the current spike seems massive in the moment, and it\u2019s a good sized one, when we step back, it \u201ccould\u201d just be another blip as the world and US Economies continue to find their way, evolving into, and taking shape from the realities of the new millennium that may be driven more by demographics and globalization than any governmental policy.\u00a0 They key for this administration, and the next several, may be recognizing those realities, and doing what can be done to shape policy to benefit the most people within those larger forces.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ll do my best to keep you posted as we roll into the New Year, and beyond.\u00a0 Please don\u2019t hesitate to call or email if you, your friends, clients, or family have questions about buying or refinancing residential or commercial real estate.<\/p>\n<p>Best wishes to you and yours for a happy, healthy and prosperous 2017.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s how our rates ended this week (they actually drifted slightly lower this week, than they started; we\u2019ll see what the New Year brings).<\/p>\n<p>Cheers!<\/p>\n<p>E<\/p>\n<table width=\"631\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"168\"><strong>Conforming<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"80\"><strong>Rates<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"80\"><strong>Points<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"83\"><strong>APR<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"123\"><strong>Loan Amt<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"98\"><strong>Payment<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"168\">30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">3.990%<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">0<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">4.040%<\/td>\n<td width=\"123\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n<td width=\"98\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,431<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"168\">15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">3.250%<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">0<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">3.350%<\/td>\n<td width=\"123\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n<td width=\"98\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,108<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"168\">3\/1 ARM<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">4.500%<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">0.5<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">4.750%<\/td>\n<td width=\"123\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n<td width=\"98\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,520<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"168\">5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">3.375%<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">0<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">3.425%<\/td>\n<td width=\"123\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n<td width=\"98\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a01,326<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"6\" width=\"631\"><strong>Jumbo (ask me about Super Conforming limit, per your zip code)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"168\">30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">4.500%<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">0<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">4.530%<\/td>\n<td width=\"123\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n<td width=\"98\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,787<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"168\">15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">4.000%<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">0<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">4.030%<\/td>\n<td width=\"123\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n<td width=\"98\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4,068<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"168\">3\/1 ARM<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">4.625%<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">0<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">4.655%<\/td>\n<td width=\"123\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n<td width=\"98\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,828<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"168\">5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">3.750%<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">0<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">3.780%<\/td>\n<td width=\"123\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n<td width=\"98\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,547<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"6\" width=\"631\">Rates subject to change without notice.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"6\" rowspan=\"4\" width=\"631\">Please keep in mind, these rates and statistics are for informational purposes only to give you a sense of market movement and my opinion as to why.\u00a0 Although these rates exist today, based on certain qualifying characteristics (760+ fico, owner occupied SFR with 75% loan to value ratio or less and $250,000+ loan amount), your scenario may allow for lower or higher interest rates.\u00a0 Licensed by the CA Dept of Real Estate, #01760965.\u00a0 NMLS: 239756.\u00a0 Equal Opportunity Housing Lender.\u00a0 If you&#8217;d like to be removed from this list, please reply with REMOVE in the subject line.\u00a0 You can also use this link, mailto:eric@ezmortgages.us and add REMOVE to the subject line.\u00a0 To add someone who would appreciate this information, send me their email with SUBSCRIBE as subject.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Eric Grathwol<\/p>\n<p>Broker<\/p>\n<p>EZ Mortgages, Inc.<\/p>\n<p>4535 Missouri Flat Rd. Ste. 2E<\/p>\n<p>Placerville, CA 95667<\/p>\n<p>Office: 530-303-3643<\/p>\n<p>Cell: 916-223-4235<\/p>\n<p>Fax: 530-237-5800<\/p>\n<p>NMLS: 239756<\/p>\n<p>www.ezmortgages.us<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Happy New Year! Wow.\u00a0 Another one in the books.\u00a0 Is it just me, or do the years seem to pass [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-564","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>EZ Mortgage Monitor - January 1, 2017 - EZ Mortgages, Inc.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-january-1-2017\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EZ Mortgage Monitor - January 1, 2017 - EZ Mortgages, Inc.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Happy New Year! 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