{"id":557,"date":"2016-10-28T10:12:52","date_gmt":"2016-10-28T17:12:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ezmortgages.us\/?p=557"},"modified":"2016-11-01T10:13:11","modified_gmt":"2016-11-01T17:13:11","slug":"ez-mortgage-monitor-october-28-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-october-28-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"EZ Mortgage Monitor- October 28, 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"

Happy Halloween!<\/p>\n

Scared of an interest rate hike?\u00a0 Not sure we need to be.<\/p>\n

The markets seem to think the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee is going to raise the Federal Funds Rate at their December meeting, like last year.\u00a0 And, they very well may.\u00a0 It seems even the thought of that happening has moved mortgage rates back up to the higher side of this year\u2019s trading range.\u00a0 But, they\u2019re really right where they were in June, when I sent my last update.<\/p>\n

And, that\u2019s still only about .25% off the lower side of this year\u2019s trading range.\u00a0 As I pointed out then, we\u2019ve been in a very tight range for quite some time.\u00a0 On the low side, rates are just a sliver above the historic floor set between Oct. 2012 and May 2013.\u00a0 On the high side, they\u2019re not much higher\u2026 Still firmly in the \u201cridiculously low\u201d range.<\/p>\n

And, what\u2019s interesting, is that if last year\u2019s Federal Funds Rate hike is any indication, we may see bonds and mortgage backed securities rally, with yields and rates drifting lower again, even if the Fed does increase the short end of the curve.\u00a0 That\u2019s exactly what happened last year.<\/p>\n

\"graph-1\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Of course, there\u2019s the saying that \u201cpast performance is not indicative of future results\u201d when it comes to investments like bonds, mortgage backed securities, equities (and many other things) so we really have no idea what may or may not happen, IF the FOMC does in fact raise rates in December.<\/p>\n

But, from my perspective although the economy is growing, it\u2019s happening pretty slowly.\u00a0 And, a lot of the \u201cusual\u201d metrics economists use to gauge economic progress are throwing off mixed signals.<\/p>\n

On the bright side, the economy has continued its longest run of job growth in history.\u00a0 And, we saw today, that the preliminary Q3 GDP reading came in at 2.9%, which is pretty good, relative to where we\u2019ve been recently.<\/p>\n

But, just to point out a couple of the potential clouds on the horizon, although job growth has been pretty strong, wage growth has remained subdued, as has personal spending.\u00a0 And, although 2.9% GDP in Q3 looks ok on the surface, the details may point to some contributions that may not continue.<\/p>\n

As Janet Yellen, Chair of the Federal Reserve System, said at a conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston on Oct. 14, 2016 \u201cExtreme economic events have often challenged existing views of how the economy works and exposed shortcomings in the collective knowledge of economists.\u201d<\/p>\n

We\u2019re very much in uncharted territory, from a variety of perspectives.\u00a0 Heck, if really smart economists are puzzled, how are the rest of us supposed to know anything with certainty?<\/p>\n

We\u2019re not.\u00a0 We just have to keep making it up as we go along.\u00a0 The world will go on.\u00a0 The view may look a little different, but, the sun always rises.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve been in a very low interest rate environment for almost a decade now.\u00a0 And, again, that\u2019s been a 30+yr process to get to this point.\u00a0 Japan?\u00a0 They\u2019ve been in an ultra-low interest rate environment for almost 30 years now.\u00a0 Will the US be the same?\u00a0 I\u2019m not convinced of that.<\/p>\n

One interesting new development is on the shorter end of the interest rate curve.\u00a0 As one would expect, since the Federal Funds Rate is a short term rate, other short term rates seem to be moving in the same direction as the Federal Funds Rate.<\/p>\n

The Prime Rate, which drives home equity lines of credit and credit card rates generally mirrors moves to the Fed Funds Rate, and is on the rise accordingly.<\/p>\n

The LIBOR (the London Interbank Offered Rate) on the other hand, began rising last year, prior to the FOMC raising the target Fed Funds Rate.\u00a0 That\u2019s important, because most Adjustable Rate Mortgages are based on the LIBOR.\u00a0 Since then, it\u2019s risen at a faster clip:<\/p>\n

\"graph-2\"<\/a><\/p>\n

As you\u2019ll see in the chart below, the Federal Funds Rate sits at a target of .5%.\u00a0 Prime is 3% higher, at 3.5%, and the 12-month LIBOR is at 1.5% or so:<\/p>\n

\"graph-3\"<\/a><\/p>\n

What that means to you, is that if you have a Home Equity Line of credit, your rate is rising with each move to the Federal Funds Rate, by the same increment.\u00a0 Your actual interest rate is based on the Prime Rate, plus your Margin (whatever the bank is charging you over Prime).\u00a0 If you\u2019re at Prime + 0%, you\u2019re now paying 3.5%, up from 3.25% last year.\u00a0 If you\u2019re at Prime + 1.5%, you\u2019re paying 5%, up from 4.75% last year.<\/p>\n

Similarly, if you have an Adjustable Rate Mortgage, it\u2019s very likely based on the LIBOR (other indices are used for ARM\u2019s, but in general all those short term rates are beginning to rise, as well).\u00a0 A typical margin over your ARM index is 2.25%.\u00a0 So, if your loan is set to adjust in the next few months, you may be looking at 1.5% LIBOR index value, plus 2.25% margin, so it\u2019ll recast based on 3.75%, over whatever term you have remaining.\u00a0 That\u2019s still a great rate.\u00a0 But, if you can secure fixed financing, at a lower interest rate, it may be worth looking into doing so.<\/p>\n

And, although the LIBOR is not directly tied to the Federal Funds Rate (whereas Prime does mirror the Fed Funds Rate) if the Fed Funds rate increases in December, it\u2019s very likely the LIBOR will continue creeping up, as it has been.\u00a0 And, right now, in many cases, you can secure fixed financing than you may be paying on an ARM if it\u2019s in the adjustment period.<\/p>\n

And, that ties into a whole other conversation entirely, which is the inverted yield curve.\u00a0 That\u2019s when short term rates are higher than long-term rates.\u00a0 That\u2019s often a harbinger of an impending recession.\u00a0 Even without that, we\u2019ve seen this economic expansion run for about seven years now, which is a very, very long expansionary cycle.\u00a0 As a result, many people already fear a recession may be around the corner.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s the Federal Market Open Market Committee going to do in that event?\u00a0 Maybe we\u2019ll see.\u00a0 Maybe we won\u2019t.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll do my best to keep you posted as we continue muddling through.\u00a0 In the meantime, I hope you\u2019re enjoying the ride.<\/p>\n

Please don\u2019t hesitate to call or email if you, your friends, clients, or family have questions about buying or refinancing residential or commercial real estate.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s how our rates ended this week.<\/p>\n

Cheers!<\/p>\n

E<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Conforming<\/strong><\/td>\nRates<\/strong><\/td>\nPoints<\/strong><\/td>\nAPR<\/strong><\/td>\nLoan Amt<\/strong><\/td>\nPayment<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n3.375%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.425%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,326<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n2.750%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n2.800%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,036<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3\/1 ARM<\/td>\n3.875%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.925%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,411<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n3.000%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.050%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,265<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jumbo (ask me about Super Conforming limit, per your zip code)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n3.875%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.905%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,586<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n3.500%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.530%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3,932<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3\/1 ARM<\/td>\n3.875%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.905%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,586<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n3.500%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.530%<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,470<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rates subject to change without notice.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Please keep in mind, these rates and statistics are for informational purposes only to give you a sense of market movement and my opinion as to why.\u00a0 Although these rates exist today, based on certain qualifying characteristics (760+ fico, owner occupied SFR with 75% loan to value ratio or less and $250,000+ loan amount), your scenario may allow for lower or higher interest rates.\u00a0 Licensed by the CA Dept of Real Estate, #01760965.\u00a0 NMLS: 239756.\u00a0 Equal Opportunity Housing Lender.\u00a0 If you’d like to be removed from this list, please reply with REMOVE in the subject line.\u00a0 You can also use this link, mailto:eric@ezmortgages.us and add REMOVE to the subject line.\u00a0 To add someone who would appreciate this information, send me their email with SUBSCRIBE as subject.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Eric Grathwol<\/p>\n

Broker<\/p>\n

EZ Mortgages, Inc.<\/p>\n

4535 Missouri Flat Rd. Ste. 2E<\/p>\n

Placerville, CA 95667<\/p>\n

Office: 530-303-3643<\/p>\n

Cell: 916-223-4235<\/p>\n

Fax: 530-237-5800<\/p>\n

NMLS: 239756<\/p>\n

www.ezmortgages.us<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Happy Halloween! Scared of an interest rate hike?\u00a0 Not sure we need to be. The markets seem to think the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-557","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nEZ Mortgage Monitor- October 28, 2016 - EZ Mortgages, Inc.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-october-28-2016\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EZ Mortgage Monitor- October 28, 2016 - EZ Mortgages, Inc.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Happy Halloween! 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