{"id":549,"date":"2016-06-06T13:57:51","date_gmt":"2016-06-06T20:57:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ezmortgages.us\/?p=549"},"modified":"2016-06-06T13:57:51","modified_gmt":"2016-06-06T20:57:51","slug":"ez-mortgage-monitor-june-3-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-june-3-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"EZ Mortgage Monitor &#8211; June 3, 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>What\u2019s going on with mortgage rates?<\/p>\n<p>Basically?\u00a0 We\u2019ve been range-bound for the better part of two years, bracketed on the lower side at about 3.625%, barely a sliver above the lowest rates in history that touched about 3.375%.\u00a0 And, on the high side, high being a relative term, at about 4.25%.\u00a0 That\u2019s a tight range.\u00a0 For two years.\u00a0 It can lull us to sleep, for sure.<\/p>\n<p>Going back a bit further, spanning four years, that range really hasn\u2019t broadened much.\u00a0 The highs were about 4.5%, and about 3.375% at the lowest point in history, between Oct. 2012 and May 2013.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fed-1.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-550\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-550\" src=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fed-1-300x199.png\" alt=\"fed 1\" width=\"300\" height=\"199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fed-1-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fed-1-768x510.png 768w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fed-1-1024x680.png 1024w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fed-1.png 1431w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Once again, as I was thinking \u201cmaybe\u201d the economy was on firmer footing (and it still may be, one month certainly doesn\u2019t make a trend) and rates may start drifting higher again?\u00a0 We have the worst employment report in about six years, today.<\/p>\n<p>However, we\u2019ve also been enjoying the longest stretch of sustained job creation in history.\u00a0 Certainly the monthly gains haven\u2019t been as big as in some prior recoveries, but the overall sustained volume has been unprecedented.<\/p>\n<p>And, there\u2019s the level of people quitting their jobs.\u00a0 This measure is often relied upon as a precursor to rising wages.\u00a0 The presumption is that if you\u2019re quitting your job, it\u2019s probably to go get another, better paying one.\u00a0 As you\u2019ll see from the chart below, people appear to be quitting their jobs at a good clip, when compared to the last 15 years, or so:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fed-2.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-551\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-551\" src=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fed-2-300x199.png\" alt=\"fed 2\" width=\"300\" height=\"199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fed-2-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fed-2-768x510.png 768w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fed-2-1024x680.png 1024w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fed-2.png 1431w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, layoffs and discharges don\u2019t appear abnormal, either, and may in fact be on the lower end of their range:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fed-3.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-552\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-552\" src=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fed-3-300x199.png\" alt=\"fed 3\" width=\"300\" height=\"199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fed-3-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fed-3-768x510.png 768w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fed-3-1024x680.png 1024w, https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/fed-3.png 1431w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>So, it\u2019s my sense to not put much stock in this clunker of an employment report.\u00a0 I think it\u2019s indicative of the ongoing, choppy recovery we\u2019re seeing in the US and other developed economies around the globe.\u00a0 And, there may be some other, more anomalous factors, as well.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s that mean to you?\u00a0 If you\u2019re positioned to buy or refinance your home during one of the dips in rates, most excellent.\u00a0 Good fortune is with you.<\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019re not?\u00a0 Another one could be just around the corner.\u00a0 And, if it\u2019s not, and rates keep drifting higher, don\u2019t fret.\u00a0 We\u2019re still about 2%-2.5% below what would be considered a \u201cnormal\u201d 30yr fixed mortgage rate in the US.\u00a0 So, keep that in perspective.\u00a0 Rates are still in the \u201cridiculously low\u201d range.\u00a0 It\u2019s more probably than not, that that \u201creturn to normalcy\u201d will happen over many years, not many months.<\/p>\n<p>Nevertheless, whether we\u2019ll see this range continue for another few months, or a few more years is anyone\u2019s guess.<\/p>\n<p>At this point, I think we can safely say that another Federal Open Market Committee rate hike in June is off the table, despite how many of the voting members may wish that was not the case.\u00a0 And, I\u2019d put maybe 50\/50 or 60\/40 odds on another rate hike by the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p>If the economic data they rely upon continues to firm?\u00a0 They\u2019ll raise rates.\u00a0 If it doesn\u2019t?\u00a0 They will stand pat.\u00a0 But, there may be some hidden motivation to move off this historic floor, if for no other reason than to give themselves a little more ammunition, if we do somehow slow (or tumble) into another recession before we\u2019re further off these historically low rates, easy monetary policy, and slowly recovering economy.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ll do my best to keep you posted on what rates are doing, and my take on why.\u00a0 But, if you don\u2019t hear from me, it\u2019s probably because there\u2019s nothing significantly new to report.<\/p>\n<p>Please don\u2019t hesitate to call or email if you, your friends, clients, or family have questions about buying or refinancing residential or commercial real estate.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s how our rates ended this week.<\/p>\n<p>Cheers!<\/p>\n<p>E<\/p>\n<table width=\"631\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"168\"><strong>Conforming<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"80\"><strong>Rates<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"80\"><strong>Points<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"83\"><strong>APR<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"123\"><strong>Loan Amt<\/strong><\/td>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"98\"><strong>Payment<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"0\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"168\">30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">3.500%<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">0<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">3.550%<\/td>\n<td width=\"123\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"98\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,347<\/td>\n<td width=\"0\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"168\">15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">2.750%<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">0<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">2.800%<\/td>\n<td width=\"123\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"98\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,036<\/td>\n<td width=\"0\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"168\">3\/1 ARM<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">3.375%<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">0<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">3.425%<\/td>\n<td width=\"123\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"98\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,326<\/td>\n<td width=\"0\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"168\">5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">3.125%<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">0<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">3.175%<\/td>\n<td width=\"123\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"98\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,285<\/td>\n<td width=\"0\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"7\" width=\"631\"><strong>Jumbo (ask me about Super Conforming limit, per your zip code)<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"0\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"168\">30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">4.250%<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">0<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">4.280%<\/td>\n<td width=\"123\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"98\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,706<\/td>\n<td width=\"0\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"168\">15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">3.875%<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">0<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">3.905%<\/td>\n<td width=\"123\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"98\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4,034<\/td>\n<td width=\"0\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"168\">3\/1 ARM<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">3.375%<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">0<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">3.405%<\/td>\n<td width=\"123\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"98\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,432<\/td>\n<td width=\"0\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"168\">5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">3.125%<\/td>\n<td width=\"80\">0<\/td>\n<td width=\"83\">3.155%<\/td>\n<td width=\"123\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"2\" width=\"98\">\u00a0$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,356<\/td>\n<td width=\"0\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"6\" width=\"603\">Rates subject to change without notice.<\/td>\n<td width=\"28\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"0\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"6\" rowspan=\"4\" width=\"603\">Please keep in mind, these rates and statistics are for informational purposes only to give you a sense of market movement and my opinion as to why.\u00a0 Although these rates exist today, based on certain qualifying characteristics (760+ fico, owner occupied SFR with 75% loan to value ratio or less and $250,000+ loan amount), your scenario may allow for lower or higher interest rates.\u00a0 Licensed by the CA Dept of Real Estate, #01760965.\u00a0 NMLS: 239756.\u00a0 Equal Opportunity Housing Lender.\u00a0 If you&#8217;d like to be removed from this list, please reply with REMOVE in the subject line.\u00a0 You can also use this link, mailto:eric@ezmortgages.us and add REMOVE to the subject line.\u00a0 To add someone who would appreciate this information, send me their email with SUBSCRIBE as subject.<\/td>\n<td width=\"28\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"0\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"28\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"0\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"28\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"0\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"28\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"0\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"168\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"80\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"80\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"83\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"123\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"70\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"28\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"0\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Eric Grathwol<\/p>\n<p>Broker<\/p>\n<p>EZ Mortgages, Inc.<\/p>\n<p>4535 Missouri Flat Rd. Ste. 2E<\/p>\n<p>Placerville, CA 95667<\/p>\n<p>Office: 530-303-3643<\/p>\n<p>Cell: 916-223-4235<\/p>\n<p>Fax: 530-237-5800<\/p>\n<p>NMLS: 239756<\/p>\n<p>www.ezmortgages.us<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What\u2019s going on with mortgage rates? Basically?\u00a0 We\u2019ve been range-bound for the better part of two years, bracketed on the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-549","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>EZ Mortgage Monitor - June 3, 2016 - EZ Mortgages, Inc.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-june-3-2016\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EZ Mortgage Monitor - June 3, 2016 - EZ Mortgages, Inc.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What\u2019s going on with mortgage rates? 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