{"id":437,"date":"2014-05-05T08:22:12","date_gmt":"2014-05-05T15:22:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ezmortgages.us\/?p=437"},"modified":"2014-05-05T08:22:12","modified_gmt":"2014-05-05T15:22:12","slug":"ez-mortgage-monitor-may-5-2014","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-may-5-2014\/","title":{"rendered":"EZ Mortgage Monitor- May 5, 2014"},"content":{"rendered":"

Do you know anyone with an arm or two?<\/p>\n

Wait, an ARM, as in an Adjustable Rate Mortgage? Probably a smaller group now\u2026<\/p>\n

Despite the bad rap ARMs got during the housing meltdown, they\u2019re not all bad. In fact, only a relatively small percentage of them were usurious. If you had a standard ARM and you\u2019ve been riding it from 2009 to now, you\u2019ve probably done pretty well. I have one, and I don\u2019t plan on refinancing out of it. But? My metrics and parameters may be wildly different than anyone else\u2019s.<\/p>\n

There are a variety of factors to consider when evaluating whether to take an Adjustable Rate Mortgage vs. a fixed loan. Likewise, if you have an ARM it\u2019s not one size fits all as to when, or if, you\u2019ll want to refinance out of it.<\/p>\n

Until the housing market crash, that pushed mortgage rates to historic lows, it was generally true that ARMs out-performed 30yr fixed mortgages, if you had the stomach and ability to ride the ups and downs (and refinance if needed). Is that true now? I doubt it. If you\u2019ve secured long-term financing between 3% and 4.5% that we\u2019ve enjoyed for the last year or two, I can\u2019t imagine ARMs outperforming that, over the long haul.<\/p>\n

Have a look at this chart:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s a snapshot of 30yr fixed mortgage rates and two common indices upon which ARMs are based, the 12-month LIBOR and the CMT (constant maturity treasury). There are several other indices that an ARM may be based upon, but it really doesn\u2019t matter. Every index will follow a very similar pattern as those seen here. Find out what yours is, and look it up.<\/p>\n

Granted, past performance is not an indication of future results, but? To me, it looks pretty clear that rates are unlikely to go lower, and most likely they will continue climbing from current lows. How fast, and how far? That\u2019s anyone\u2019s guess.<\/p>\n

Be sure to also know the margin of your ARM, which is what the bank charges on top of your index. In my case, the index is the 12-month LIBOR, with a 2.25% margin. My ARM can only adjust up or down by 2%\/yr, regardless of what the underlying index does.<\/p>\n

So, if you\u2019ve got an ARM now, what should you do?<\/p>\n

It depends.<\/p>\n

When did you take out that ARM? When is your first, or next adjustment? How long do you plan on keeping that property? How big is your principal balance? How comfortable are you, or how uncomfortable would you be, IF rates rise and drive your payment up? Do you have an option to refinance, if that were to happen? What sort of caps do you have \u2013 if any \u2013 on your ARM (there are typically caps for your first adjustment, annually, and life of loan)?<\/p>\n

My ARM has worked out pretty well, so far\u2026<\/p>\n

Did I see rates going as low as they did when I bought a property w\/ a 3\/1 ARM in 2006? Not a chance. But, even though I bought the place with a buy and hold mentality, I was taking a calculated risk that my ARM would outperform a 30yr fixed rate, which was in the 6%s at that time.<\/p>\n

Good luck definitely helped, because although the duplex I bought lost 50% of its value, during the crash, precluding me from any viable refinance options \u2013 until HARP II was rolled out, pretty late in the game \u2013 since my rate and payment went so low, by continuing to pay the same as I\u2019d started with, I hacked my principal balance way faster than any fixed loan would\u2019ve allowed for similar payments. That was a nice bonus.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve paid down about $33k of principal since I bought the place in 2006. Had I used 30yr fixed financing, with rates in the 6%s at that time, I\u2019d have spent the same cash, and have a balance of roughly $118k vs. my $99k outstanding now. And, due to the lost equity, I wouldn\u2019t have been able to keep refinancing as fixed rates plunged.<\/p>\n

Fortunately, at this point, with only $99k outstanding, even if rates rise faster than I think they may, my payment will still be manageable, since my rents cover, or theoretically cover \u2013 those of you with rental properties may be able to relate there \u2013 my payment.<\/p>\n

Lastly, I\u2019m \u201cguessing\u201d that the LIBOR will remain relatively low for another two years. I\u2019ve done the math. If I were to refinance with a HARP II 15yr fixed (unfortunately, I can\u2019t do Georgia loans \u2013 well, I guess I could get licensed there, but that\u2019s another story) I\u2019d be at about 4.5% because the rate\/fees I can find through other lenders aren\u2019t as good as what I could get myself. My payment would pretty closely match what I\u2019m paying now, but? If I\u2019m right, and the LIBOR doesn\u2019t climb too much in the next two years, I\u2019ll actually cut an extra $5k or so off my principal in the next two years riding my ARM vs. taking a 15yr fixed loan today.<\/p>\n

At that point, I\u2019ll owe about $80k, so even if the place is worth about the same as today (maybe $100k) I\u2019ll have refinance options at that time \u2013 if I need them. At 3.25% (and I\u2019m actually at 2.875%) with 22 years remaining my required principal and interest payment is $525\/mo. Even if rates rise precipitously, so I\u2019m paying 7% with 20yrs remaining on $95k, my payment would still be a very manageable $736\/mo. On the other hand, if we find rates are still riding their lows two years down the road? I\u2019ll do the math again, and may continue riding that ARM.<\/p>\n

But, if I had $300k or more on the line? You bet I\u2019d be doing the math very seriously about whether to refinance or not with fixed rates near their historic floor. $300k at 3.25% with 22 years remaining is $1592\/mo, and $280k at 7% with 20 years remaining jumps to $2170. That\u2019s a sizeable monthly increase. Is it worth taking that chance of rates staying low?<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, we\u2019ll know in five or ten years what the right call was. Isn\u2019t hindsight great?!<\/p>\n

So, if you\u2019re riding out an ARM \u2013 or you know anyone that is \u2013 and want some insight into whether or not a refinance would pencil out well, while fixed rates are still really close to their historic floor, give me a call.<\/p>\n

Likewise, if you\u2019re considering using an ARM vs. a fixed loan now, and want a candid and objective analysis of whether an ARM or a fixed mortgage would serve you best, don\u2019t hesitate to call.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, here are your rates for this week. Please don\u2019t hesitate to call or email if you, your friends, or family have questions about financing residential or commercial real estate.<\/p>\n

Cheers!<\/p>\n

E<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Conforming<\/strong><\/td>\nRates<\/strong><\/td>\nPoints<\/strong><\/td>\nAPR<\/strong><\/td>\nLoan Amt<\/strong><\/td>\nPayment<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n4.250%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.250%<\/td>\n$ \u00a0 \u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,476<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n3.250%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.250%<\/td>\n$ \u00a0 \u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,108<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3\/1 ARM<\/td>\n3.500%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.500%<\/td>\n$ \u00a0 \u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,347<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n2.875%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n2.875%<\/td>\n$ \u00a0 \u00a0 300,000.00<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 1,245<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jumbo (ask me about Super Conforming limit, per your zip code)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n4.625%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.625%<\/td>\n$ \u00a0 \u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,828<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td>\n4.000%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4.000%<\/td>\n$ \u00a0 \u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 4,068<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3\/1 ARM<\/td>\n3.750%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.750%<\/td>\n$ \u00a0 \u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,547<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5\/1 ARM<\/td>\n3.750%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n3.750%<\/td>\n$ \u00a0 \u00a0 550,000.00<\/td>\n$\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2,547<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rates subject to change without notice.<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Please keep in mind, these rates and statistics are for informational purposes only to give you a sense of market movement and my opinion as to why. Although these rates exist today, based on certain qualifying characteristics (740+ fico, owner occupied SFR with 75% loan to value ratio or less), your scenario may allow for lower or higher interest rates. Licensed by the CA Dept of Real Estate, #01760965. NMLS: 239756. Equal Opportunity Housing Lender. If you’d like to be removed from this list, please reply with REMOVE in the subject line. You can also use this link, mailto:eric@ezmortgages.us and add REMOVE to the subject line. To add someone who would appreciate this information, send me their email with SUBSCRIBE as subject.<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Eric Grathwol<\/p>\n

Broker<\/p>\n

EZ Mortgages, Inc.<\/p>\n

4535 Missouri Flat Rd. Ste. 2E<\/p>\n

Placerville, CA 95667<\/p>\n

Office: 530-303-3643<\/p>\n

Cell: 916-223-4235<\/p>\n

Fax: 530-237-5800<\/p>\n

NMLS: 239756<\/p>\n

www.ezmortgages.us<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Do you know anyone with an arm or two? Wait, an ARM, as in an Adjustable Rate Mortgage? 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