{"id":1707,"date":"2024-09-16T10:36:45","date_gmt":"2024-09-16T17:36:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/?p=1707"},"modified":"2024-09-18T10:37:48","modified_gmt":"2024-09-18T17:37:48","slug":"ez-mortgage-monitor-september-16-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-september-16-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"EZ Mortgage Monitor &#8211; September 16, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It\u2019s Fed Week!&nbsp; Isn\u2019t that exciting?&nbsp; Well, maybe not quite like that first powder day of a new ski season, or the start of college football season, but still exciting, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Maybe not?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s what we know.&nbsp; The Federal Open Market Committee is going to lower their target Federal Funds Rate, which is the overnight rate at which banks lend to each other, during Tuesday and Wednesday\u2019s meeting.&nbsp; By how much?&nbsp; That\u2019s the bigger question.&nbsp; They\u2019ve been telegraphing for weeks, or arguably even a couple months, or more, that we\u2019re most likely going to see a .25% decrease, the first decrease in about 54 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ve been saying that\u2019s largely baked into the cake.&nbsp; We first hit the current mortgage interest rate level in the wake of July\u2019s Employment Report issued on Friday, August 2<sup>nd<\/sup>.&nbsp; Since then, the market\u2019s bounced around, and is now back to that point, or in some scenarios a touch lower.&nbsp; As I\u2019m fond of saying, interest rates don\u2019t usually move in a straight line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, some people are thinking\/hoping for a .5% cut with Wednesday\u2019s announcement.&nbsp; Their premise is the Fed is already behind the curve of a softening economy, and needs to act boldly. In fact, the CME Group\u2019s Fed Watch tool (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html<\/a>) says there\u2019s a 67% chance of a .5% cut.&nbsp; I\u2019m in the minority.&nbsp; I don\u2019t think they\u2019ll do that.&nbsp; But what if they do?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Something else you hear me say all the time is predicting a data point is one thing, but predicting the market\u2019s reaction to it, is a whole other.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think a .25% rate cut will be basically a non-event.&nbsp; It\u2019s already priced into everything we\u2019re seeing in mortgage rates.&nbsp; I think their tone of the policy statement and subsequent press conference by Chairman Powell will reiterate their measured, data-dependent stance, and their belief that inflation is continuing to fall towards their 2% target rate, and they\u2019re comfortable with their current policy stance.&nbsp; I\u2019d call that an 80%+ chance event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But what if they do cut by .5%?&nbsp; What happens then?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You could see the stock market rally believing the era of cheap money is rushing back towards us!&nbsp; In that instance, bonds (and remember mortgage backed securities trade like bonds) could actually worsen, with prices falling and yields rising, as they compete for the money flowing into equities.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Or, you could see the stock market sell off, because the \u201cwhy\u201d behind a .5% interest rate cut is because the economy is on softer footing than expected, so what problems lie ahead?!&nbsp; What about that dreaded recession?&nbsp; In this case maybe bonds rally, and yields fall further?&nbsp; Or, maybe everything sells off and people move to cash?&nbsp; Who knows?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And that\u2019s the point.&nbsp; It\u2019s almost like Waiting for Godot.&nbsp; You can do a lot of waiting, and talking, while life passes you by.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So where will rates go from here?&nbsp; I believe lower.&nbsp; I don\u2019t think there are many who disagree with that.&nbsp; But how long that\u2019ll take, is anyone\u2019s guess.&nbsp; After all, I have been saying rates will shift lower for about two years now.&nbsp; And I\u2019m finally right!&nbsp; As to how low might they go?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s a theory about the neutral rate of interest, or r* (r star).&nbsp; The theory goes that there\u2019s an interest rate that is neither stimulating nor restraining economic activity and growth.&nbsp; It\u2019s a rate that allows the economy to run at full employment, without inflationary pressures.&nbsp; The goldilocks economy, to use one fable\u2019s terminology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are economic models that try to capture where the neutral rate might be, but they\u2019re just theories.&nbsp; The neutral rate cannot be directly observed.&nbsp; It can only be inferred.&nbsp; It\u2019s like the economic Holy Grail, and could be completely mythical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As Robert Kaplan, former President of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank said in 2018 \u201cOne challenge in moving toward a neutral stance is the inherently imprecise and uncertain nature of estimating what constitutes \u201cneutral.\u201d This judgment is more of an art than a science and involves observing and analyzing a wide variety of factors.\u201d&nbsp; (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dallasfed.org\/news\/speeches\/kaplan\/2018\/rsk181024\">https:\/\/www.dallasfed.org\/news\/speeches\/kaplan\/2018\/rsk181024<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, like Waiting For Godot, it\u2019s about what is happening while you\u2019re waiting for something that may or may not ever happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Using housing as an example, there are still some 350,000 purchases happening every month. &nbsp;For people who found the right home that met their needs and budget, and bought that home last fall, at the peak of the current rate cycle, many of them have refinanced, taking their interest rate from the mid 7%s or so, down to the mid 6%s, without incurring any closing costs, because they\u2019re able to choose an interest rate that offsets them.&nbsp; That can net you significant monthly savings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But, if you own a home with a mortgage at those higher rates, and you\u2019re waiting for them to get even lower than they are now, you\u2019re costing yourself money each month you wait.&nbsp; Whereas if you book your gains, cost-effectively refinancing now, you can just repeat the process down the road.&nbsp; And, for most people, we suggest just taking those savings and applying them back towards extra principal payments, accelerating your loan payoff and not re-amortizing your loan.&nbsp; But, everyone\u2019s circumstances vary, so how you use those savings is always up to you.&nbsp; Either way, they\u2019re likely there for the taking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think that trend is likely to continue.&nbsp; It\u2019s not going to be a straight line.&nbsp; It\u2019ll likely look more like a sawblade with a slow downward angle.&nbsp; There will be peaks and valleys, as usual, but the overall downward trend should remain.&nbsp; At least barring any unforeseen shocks to the system, which seem prone to happen periodically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s just math.&nbsp; And, we do our best to outline the math behind your best options, whether you\u2019re buying or refinancing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With that, here\u2019s your snapshot of where rates started this week.&nbsp; Call or email if you, your family or friends have any questions or would like to discuss refinancing, or buying a home.&nbsp; Cheers!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>E&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-28f84493 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:100%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-28f84493 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:100%\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table has-small-font-size\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Conforming<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Rates<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Points<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>APR<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Loan Amt<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Payment<\/strong><\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td><td>5.625%<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5.675%<\/td><td>&nbsp;$&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 300,000.00<\/td><td>&nbsp;$&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1,727<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td><td>5.000%<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5.050%<\/td><td>&nbsp;$&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 300,000.00<\/td><td>&nbsp;$&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2,372<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5\/6 ARM<\/td><td>6.000%<\/td><td>2.5<\/td><td>6.289%<\/td><td>&nbsp;$&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 300,000.00<\/td><td>&nbsp;$&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1,799<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>7\/6 ARM<\/td><td>6.000%<\/td><td>2.875<\/td><td>6.310%<\/td><td>&nbsp;$&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 300,000.00<\/td><td>&nbsp;$&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1,799<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td colspan=\"6\"><strong>Jumbo (ask me about Super Conforming limit, per your zip code)<\/strong><\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>30 yr fixed mortgage<\/td><td>6.125%<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>6.275%<\/td><td>&nbsp;$&nbsp; 1,200,000.00<\/td><td>&nbsp;$&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 7,291<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>15 yr fixed mortgage<\/td><td>6.250%<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>6.358%<\/td><td>&nbsp;$&nbsp; 1,200,000.00<\/td><td>&nbsp;$&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 10,289<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5\/6 ARM<\/td><td>6.250%<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>6.379%<\/td><td>&nbsp;$&nbsp; 1,200,000.00<\/td><td>&nbsp;$&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 7,389<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>10\/6 ARM<\/td><td>6.250%<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>6.481%<\/td><td>&nbsp;$&nbsp; 1,200,000.00<\/td><td>&nbsp;$&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 7,389<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Rates subject to change without notice.<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td colspan=\"6\" rowspan=\"4\">Please keep in mind, these rates and statistics are for informational purposes only to give you a sense of market movement and my opinion as to why.&nbsp; Although these rates exist today, based on certain qualifying characteristics (780+ fico, owner occupied SFR with 75% loan to value ratio or less and $200,000+ loan amount), your scenario may allow for lower or higher interest rates.&nbsp; Licensed by the CA Dept of Real Estate, #01760965.&nbsp; NMLS: 239756.&nbsp; Equal Opportunity Housing Lender.&nbsp; If you&#8217;d like to be removed from this list, please reply with REMOVE in the subject line.&nbsp; You can also use this link, mailto:eric@ezmortgages.us and add REMOVE to the subject line.&nbsp; To add someone who would appreciate this information, send me their email with SUBSCRIBE as subject.<\/td><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s Fed Week!&nbsp; Isn\u2019t that exciting?&nbsp; Well, maybe not quite like that first powder day of a new ski season, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_eb_attr":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1707","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>EZ Mortgage Monitor - September 16, 2024 - EZ Mortgages, Inc.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ezmortgages.us\/ez-mortgage-monitor-september-16-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EZ Mortgage Monitor - September 16, 2024 - EZ Mortgages, Inc.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It\u2019s Fed Week!&nbsp; 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